Week 11 - November 11, 2006

This was the final week before the biggest game of the new century. Ohio State was a 20 something point favorite at Northwestern (a place they lost in 2004) and Michigan was a 19 point favorite at Indiana. There was no doubt that both teams were definitely looking ahead……and you know what IT DIDN’T MATTER! They each ran away and hid early……and now it is finally time to talk about the biggest game of the year Michigan at Ohio State. By the time they kick off at 3:45pm on Saturday every story line about Michigan and OSU will be beaten to death. I can't even imagine how excited Brent Musburger is going to be, you can hear it in his voice on the commercials already. He will have more cliches ready then Mr. Booyau himself Stuart Scott. In order to make it through the game, try this. Apparently the Brent Musburger Drinking Game is a big hit.

http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/005660.php

My favorite Michigan football memory actually has nothing at all to do with the Ohio State game or any Michigan game at all. It took place when I was in college and a blizzard hit Greenville, South Carolina. (3 inches) Snow in Greenville meant drinking, drinking and more drinking....along with other tomfoolery. On this night while drinking heavily we decided 2 things. One it would be a great night to shave my buddy Halvorsen's head (For the 2nd time) and once it was completley shaved we needed to find black electric tape. Why electric tape? Well of course to tape the Michigan Wolverine helmet stripes on to his bald head. His nickname was the wrecking ball, so a helmet, even one of tape seemed like a good idea. You would be shocked how well this turned out. The only thing that would be better than seeing his little bald head full of black stripes would be having a picture of it right now.

Let’s recap week 11 before we get to THE BIG GAME.

Strangest line of the week:

Wake Forrest at Florida St. – On Monday FSU was favored by 5……by game time on Saturday this game was a 9.5 point spread for FSU. This is one of those rare times where the Oddsmakers were way off……Never does a line climb almost 5 points during a week with there being a significant injury, suspension or some other act of God. This is the same FSU team that has lost at home to Clemson and BC and on the road at NC St. and Miami. I just can’t believe the Danny Sheridan’s’ of the world and the bettors let one decent performance against UVA taint their minds. Right now FSU is living off of who they used to be. 5 or 10 years ago could you have imagined Wake coming to Talle and blanking the mighty Noles 30-0? Give credit to those in the LYAI and II as no one took FSU and at least half of the group took Wake. Oh by the way all of this happened with PINE placing $200 on Wake. If anything could have thrown this game off that certainly would have been it. Bobby we love you, stick around another 10 years.

Screw Job of the Week

Cincinnati at West Virginia

The line on this game was anywhere from 17 – 19 points in WVU’s favor. At the end of the 3rd quarter WVU led 42-10 and looked to be in a position to cover easily. The Bearcats scored early in the 4th and chose to go for 2 points…..they were unsuccessful. With 5 minutes to go in the game the Cats score again. Again they will attempt a 2 point play….this time the 2 pointer has to come from 15 yards away after a penalty. And yes they made the 2 point try. Final score 42-24….an 18 point spread. Now depending on your line and the team you picked you may have won or lost all because of a random 2 point play from the 15 yard line with 5 minutes remaining in a meaningless 4th quarter. That’s why you shouldn’t bet!

OVER/UNDER Madness

Hawaii’s lines have become ridiculous…..yet they continue to cover. The Rainbow Warriors are 7-1-1 against the number this year. The last 3 weeks they have easily covered 25.5, 24 and 36.5 points. They have scored over 60 points 3 of the last 4 weeks. These are Sega football numbers……not NCAA numbers. At game time the over under on the game was 77 points, in case you are bad at math that is 11 touchdowns. It would seem like 11 Td’s requires an awful lot of things to go right……or wrong, depending on which side you are on. Amazingly LA Tech scores a TD with 16 seconds on the clock to make the final score 61-17…….oh yes 78 total points. Now this line is what we have come to expect from the oddsmakers. I must give my friend Mike Pine some credit for a smart betting move. (For once) Maybe it was just dumb luck, but when we discussed the O/U and he said “What do you think about a teaser” (Never good words to hear…..teasers exist only because they tease you into thinking that you will win easily.) “I’ll tease the Hawaii O/U to 83 and the USC line to -3…what do you think?” This teaser actually saved his ass. Maybe things have turned around for Pine. He recently told me that he had made 33 bets and only won 5! Ouch. He was so disappointed he stopped completing his gambling spreadsheet as it was just way too depressing.

While Hawaii is one of the better teams against the spread this season they are not the best. Now some these records can be off just a bit because lines move and sometimes you may place a bet before or after these movements.


Best:
Nevada 9-1
BYU 9-1
C. Michigan 9-1
East Carolina 9-1
Ohio St. 9-2
Wisconsin 8-1-1


Where there is good there is also bad:

Fresno St. 0-9 (This is bizarre to me because I actually picked against Fresno when they played at LSU and lost….the spread moved from 33 to 31 and LSU won by 32. In case you care the Tigers also had the ball inside the 5 yard line as time ran out. I am not bitter at all.

Iowa – 1-9 Once upon a time they were a Top 10 team.
Stanford – 2-8
Michigan St. 2-8-1
Iowa St. 2-8


I can’t write a blog without talking about the ND at Air Force game. These 2 teams play every few years and usually the games are relatively close despite the considerable edge in talent. The last game was back when Ty Willingham was in his Honeymoon faze at Notre Dame the Irish were 6-0 and facing a 6-0 Falcon team who were actually 3 point favorites at home. ND won 21-14, although the game wasn’t really that close. That was the first time I had ever watched an Air Force – ND game with the Flytrap Mike Pine. He and his Dad the Cornel hate Notre Dame with a passion. I won $100 from him that night on the game and I’m not sure he actually ever watched one play of the game because he was liquored up before kick-off. Oh how things have changed since Ty left for Washington. Flytrap was supposed to meet me downtown at my old condo because the game was only available on DirecTV. The initial plan was to meet at 4pm when toe met leather and then afterwards we would go out and have a few beers. Anyone who knows Pine well could have figured this out, but yes his wife was out of town. As much as we love Pine we all know he is only allowed to leave his neighborhood when his other half is in another state. The one big problem for him now is that sometimes when she leaves Pine is the one responsible for his 2 young daughters. This was one of those times. He and the girls made it downtown at 6pm (only 2 hours after kick-off)….the 3rd quarter had begun and the game was no longer in doubt. The girls were there to stay and there was no baby sitter available so going out wasn't an option.

Much like Pine on this night….The Force had little fight in them. ND scored in 54 seconds on two plays from 80 yards and the game was never close after this. The strange thing is the Force didn’t really seem to care that ND was running and passing all over them. That is a bad sign when you are an Air Force fan, if nothing else the service academies always care.

Team of the Week (The Rutgers Award)

This is a tie between Georgia and Kansas St. UGA has had a disappointing season losing not only to Tennessee and Florida, but also to Vandy and Kentucky. Not since Ray Goff have we seen that. The truth is the convincing win over Auburn and a possible victory at home against Georgia Tech in 2 weeks would actually let many UGA fans forget about what downer season it has been. 8-4 in a rebuilding year in the SEC is not all that bad. What has been worse this year is that Georgia has really only had one impressive win that being at South Carolina. Beating Auburn gives Dawgs fans hope and reminds the stupid ones that Mark Richt is an excellent head coach and they are lucky to have him.

Kansas St. – Since Bill Snyder retired the Wildcats have slipped back closer to reality. This win over Texas puts K-St. back on the map. My buddy McGruder said K-St. will win the BIG 12 in the next few years…..he actually told me to write that in the blog. We shall see. I couldn’t actually watch any of this game because ABC refused to leave the FSU – Wake blow-out even in the 4th quarter. What I found funny was that no one was left in the Stadium in Talle and the viewers were being forced to watch every last pathetic play. Good job ABC.

THE BIG GAME

For the first time in their unbelievable history Mee-cha-gan and Ohio State will play each other as the #1 and #2 teams in the country. The early line on this game is slightly higher than I would have guessed….OSU is favored by 6.5 or 7 points. The big question is if Michigan is able to go into Columbus and defeat a 7 point favorite at home should the Buckeyes get a do over in January? My vote would be no….unfortunately I don’t yet have a vote. To me this is the National Championship Game. These are clearly the two best teams in college football as they have both completed an 11 game schedule in a major conference with a perfect record. Michigan won at #2 Notre Dame and OSU won at #2 and defending champ Texas. You may like the story of Rutgers or the consistency of Boise St. but these teams are not the same caliber as Michigan and OSU.

I actually had a chance to attend this game in Ann Arbor 3 years ago. Michigan won the game and it became very apparent to me that the hate between the fans at Michigan and OSU was extremely deep. Ohio fans often refer to Michigan as that state up north. My buddy Ric couldn’t get out of the Big House fast enough and referred to the Big House as a shit hole more than once. The funny thing is until recently OSU fans dreaded the Michigan game. OSU had been in 2-10-1 from 1988 through 2000. Now OSU has won 4 of the last 5 and shoe is definitely on the other foot. On top of that Michigan has not beaten a number one team since knocking off Miami in 1984. They will have their hands full with Troy Smith and OSU. The last 2 years Smith has single handedly beaten Michigan with his mobility and his arm. If he can do that again on Saturday he will leave with the Heisman Trophy and a date in Glendale, Arizona on January 8th.

This gets me to one the most ridiculous things about this game. In the last 2.5 months each of these teams has managed to play 11 football games. After Saturday’s contest the winner (and maybe the loser) will have to wait 51 days before playing their next real game. Are you kidding me??? This is truly a joke. Do we really think we will see the same team in 51 days? Can you imagine winning the NFC or AFC Championship game and playing the Super Bowl 7 weeks later? What about making the Final Four and waiting until May to play the Semi-finals. This is the most asinine thing in College Football. I mean waiting until New Year’s Day was bad enough…..now let’s add another week. You really have to wonder if anyone in the NCAA actually thinks about what they are doing.

Week 12 Lines and Predictions:

WVU -10.5 at Pitt – WVU will roll in the “Backyard Brawl”

Va Tech -2 at Wake – Wake is still not getting any respect. They win again.

Rutgers -6.5 at Cincy – Rutgers will barely escape setting up a huge game in Morgantown. Take Cincy and the points.

Auburn -3 at Alabama – Auburn will use D and special teams to win in a game that I won't watch a single play of.

BC -7 vs. Maryland – I would take Maryland and the points, they may win straight up.

USC -5.5 vs. Cal – Cal and the points. We will find out if the USC defense really is better.

Michigan +6.5 at OSU – I’d like to think Michigan can win. I am just not a huge fan of Chad Henne in big games. Mario Manningham made him look great early in the season, but I think he will struggle on Saturday. OSU just has too many playmakers and one (or more) of them will be the difference.

OSU 31 Michigan 17

Week 10 November 4, 2006

I am not going to lie after Thursday night I didn’t find it to be a particularly great week of college football. Yes the LSU vs. Tennessee game was a good one, yes it was a huge win for Kentucky over Georgia and yes both Michigan and Ohio St were in relatively close games.

WVU and Louisville

I have not been a fan of West Virginia all season so last Thursday was great to watch for me. Take nothing away from White, Slaton and the wide receiver Renard, these are all very talented players with tons of speed and elusiveness. (I would love any of them to be at Notre Dame) However, this is a flawed team. When they get behind or are forced into long yardage situations they can not drop back and consistently complete passes for first downs. This has rarely been exposed during the 2006 season as WVU has not played anyone that could field similar athletes. The other thing that killed them was Steve Slaton’s poor performance and lack of heart in a big game. Slaton fumbled twice at the start of the second half, the second of which led to a Ville defensive score. Then he remained out of the game for several crucial series when his team needed him due to some sort of a hand injury. He later returned but it was too late at this point.

Why Rutgers will beat Louisville

The best part of Louisville’s win over WVU is that now the Big East has virtually no shot of getting into the National Title Game. Why you ask? Well because this Thursday in Piscataway, New Jersey the Cardinals dream season will come to a crashing end. I have spoken many times about how important emotion is in College Football. Louisville just played the biggest game in the history of their program and now they must go on the road to face a rested Rutgers team in exactly the same place. This game is the first meaningful football game in the state of New Jersey since the kick-off Classic ended a few years ago.
The Rutgers fans will be absolutely crazy and Rutgers will show the whole USA first hand how far they have come under Greg Schiano.

Let’s look at Louisville’s last 7 road games against major conference teams:

At Syracuse win 28-13 – Closer game than the score.
At Kansas St. win 24-6

Last season
At Uconn win 30-20
At Cincinnati win 46 -22
At WVU Loss 46-44
At South Florida loss 45-14
At Kentucky win 31-24 –UK fumbled inside the 5 yard line in the final moments.

My point is this is a much different squad away from Papa John’s field. We all know they score 50 something points a game at home…..again at home.


Thursday Night
Stolz came over to watch the Rutgers – Louisville game. He had taken Rutgers +7 in the LYA2. I let him read the first half of my blog before the game and he was with me. Pfeif on the other hand was confident that Louisville would win easily…..”By 20 points” he said. Of course he is picking at a 47% clip in the LYA so why should this worry me? I’ll tell you what worried me….The Ville’s first play from scrimmage looked exactly like they did last week against WVU. With sufficient time Brohm and the talented Louisville receivers will tear you apart. Luckily Greg Schiano is not like any other coach. He knows that Rutgers only chance is to pressure Brohm and keep him from getting into any kind of rhythm. Down 25 -7 Rutgers looks to be in serious trouble, but in 3 plays they make the score 25-14 going into halftime. I still believe in this Rutgers team. Their defense has not stopped Louisville but it certainly has provided more resistance then WVU did last week and I don’t see the Louisville Defense shutting down Rutgers.

Did you see Brian Brohm’s brother on the sidelines? He also happens to be his QB coach and every time Brohm comes off the field his brother is right there screaming at him. This doesn’t look like a pleasant relationship. If I remember correctly Brian Brohm is twice the QB his brother Jeff was…..

The second half is a completely different story than the first half. At one point Louisville has 4 straight 3 and outs. Rutgers is running the ball right at Louisville and their receivers finally step up and make some plays. Rutgers comes all the way back to tie the score at 25 and now Louisville faces a make or break drive. They get the ball with 7:30 left in the game and Brohm converts two key 3rd down passes against the attacking Rutgers D. With the game on the line Louisville doesn’t look like a team that wants to win this game. Rutgers stops the Ville on third down and now they will have their chance to win the game. Thanks to a huge 3rd and 6 screen pass to 5th year senior Matt Leonard the Scarlet Knights moves down the field controlling the line of scrimmage. It is unbelievable that Rutgers is about to be 9-0 and one of the top 10 teams in the country……but it is about to happen as Rutgers lines up for a very manageable field goal. The kicker Ito actually misses wide left but a Louisville defender is clearly offsides. Attempt #2 is right down the middle and now barring another kick-off return Rutgers is going to win the game. For some inexcusable reason they kick the ball deep to the same Ville player who earlier had a 100 return and who has been one tackle away all night. This is Rutgers night and nothing is going to ruin it.

Final score Rutgers 28 Louisville 25