Friday, October 05, 2007

WEEK 4 and 5


Consider last week the Blog’s bye week… After a week off, I am refreshed and have plenty to write about. I actually started to write the blog last week and quickly realized I had nothing much to say (shocking, I know). It seemed as if the football season had hit a serious lull. Week 4 had some good games (Georgia at Alabama, Kentucky at Arkansas, PSU at Michigan) but really nothing that had tremendous national implications. Week 5 was supposed to be a good week, but initially it appeared to just be setting the stage for the biggest weekend of the season. Well that didn’t exactly happen. When we look back at the 2007 college football season we may very well look back at this past weekend as the one that had the biggest impact on who is playing who and where in the BCS games scheduled for next March (TV has requested this).

Coming into the weekend we had the following top 10:

USC, LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Cal, Texas, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Rutgers (most of the usual suspects)

We knew WVU and Cal would be pushed by South Florida and Oregon, we thought Florida, USC, Wisconsin and Rutgers were all playing teams that under the right circumstances could be involved in close games. It was a foregone conclusion that LSU, Oklahoma, Texas (revenge) and Ohio St. would at least survive one more week.

After last weekend new top 10 includes:

LSU, USC, Cal, Ohio St., Wisconsin, BC, South Florida, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma……and all I can say is WOW. If last week (4) was like watching Turtle wait in line for $500 sneakers, this week was the equivalent of E having a three-some with 2 drop dead gorgeous girls. Let’s just hope that we haven’t peaked like E. Between the upsets last week and the big games coming up this week, I don’t know how everyone doesn’t love college football (yes, even me).

What happened and what do we know now:

The Pac Ten is a good conference…Why? Cal is for real and Oregon is still scary. It took 4 Duck turnovers late in the game to lose for the first time in 20 years at home to Cal. ASU under Dennis Erickson is 5-0 and Washington is an improved team.

The ACC has only one team left with any real top 10 aspirations…BC and they barely beat UMASS. Clemson did exactly what they always do…choke.

The Big 12 blows…so much for the Red River Shootout next week…HOW does Oklahoma lose to a terrible Colorado team? It’s not the first time that Stoops has lost to an unranked team (See Oklahoma St., TCU, UCLA, Texas A&M) I know Missouri and Kansas are still both undefeated, but please have they played anyone?

The SEC top to bottom may be better than ever…You don’t think so, well this Thursday’s Kentucky at South Carolina game might be the best game of the upcoming week and that is saying a lot when you have Florida at LSU and Georgia at Tennessee. The winner in Columbia will have a legit shot at making their first trip to Atlanta.

South Florida is now the Big East favorite and Cincinnati may be for real. Do I really need to say anything else? Did you read any preseason magazines? (Ok, so maybe I am the only one that still reads preseason magazines anymore.) What internet site predicted this?

We have no idea how good any of the Big Ten teams are. OSU has played a soft schedule, Wisconsin looks like they are going to lose every week and somehow wins, Finally we see Michigan does not play its entire schedule at home and Purdue found a way to let Notre Dame out gain them in total yards on their way to a 5-0 start.

Three sucker bets this past weekend:

PSU -3 at Illinois. What happened? Illinois won straight up. Anthony Morelli still has never won a road game of any consequence. BTW this doesn’t mean I am writing off PSU, I just won’t go near them in a road game until they prove otherwise.

Louisville -9 at NC State. What happened? 3 weeks ago this line would have been 24 points or more. Louisville didn’t win that big but 29-10 was more than enough to cover the 9 points. Tom O’Brien, how does that move from BC to Raleigh look now? (Maybe he should be the next San Diego Chargers head coach.)

Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech….What happened? Anyone who follows Georgia Tech or Clemson has seen this one too many times before. Tech was left for dead after 2 straight losses and Clemson appeared to be ready to finally get past their reputation of losing games they shouldn’t. Tech 13 Clemson 3. (I won’t bet for or against Tech one time the rest of the season.)

“The stats are startling. They average less points per game than most teams do in a quarter”

“Our offense is doing anything it wants to”

“Our QB is getting extraordinary amounts of time to throw”

“The way this game is going I don’t know what is going to save the (opponent) today.”

Can you guess what satellite broadcast I was listening to on Saturday? If you guessed Purdue you were correct. Unfortunately I only heard the first half. On top of the previously mentioned comments Notre Dame missed 2 extra points (they actually missed a 3rd but a penalty gave them another kick) had a field goal blocked, allowed Purdue to convert on a 3rd and 29 and a 3rd and 21 and failed to gain a single yard on two 4th and 1 situations. And this was the first positive performance of the season for the Irish.


Week 5 (My predicted spreads on Sunday night vs. lines from the USA Today on Thursday)

Thursday

Kentucky at South Carolina
(CB says SC -2)…It started lower and is now at 3.5 and even 5 points in some places. This will be a great game and Kentucky will live their dream for one more week. If Steve Spurrier had Andre Woodson he would be in Atlanta in December. Cats 24 SC 23

Saturday

Florida at LSU (CB says LSU -7.5). The line on Thursday is 8.5. While the Auburn loss exposed Florida’s weaknesses, it may be the best thing that could have happened to them. I think Florida will make this a great game and be in it until the 4th quarter. LSU 27 UF 21.

Ohio St. at Purdue (CB says OSU -8.5). OSU is favored by 7 as the road team. Purdue has players at the skill positions and playing at home at night you know West Lafeyette will be rocking. I just think Painter will make too many mistakes against an OSU team that has been in many games like this before. OSU 27 Purdue 16

Georgia at Tennessee
(CB says pick ‘em). Georgia is ranked just outside of the top 10 and has beaten UT the last 3 times in Knoxville and UT is unranked with a defense giving up 37 points a game. Somehow UT is favored by 1.5 and you know what? I have a hunch that the odds-makers are right on this one. Vols 31 Dawgs 27.

Notre Dame at UCLA (CB says UCLA -11.5). Well obviously I was way off on this one. UCLA is favored by 20.5 and I won’t even begin to touch this game. Evan Sharpley actually gave the Irish some life last week and he should play more in this game. IF ND is going to avoid going 0-8, I think this is the game, but I just don’t have the courage to pick it that way. UCLA 23 ND 13. PS: You know its bad when the Chicago ABC affiliate chooses the OSU at Purdue over the ND at UCLA game. Rudy's Dad would be heartbroken.

Oklahoma at Texas (CB says OK -9). This one is up to -11 for Oklahoma. I really love Oklahoma in this game and was hoping the line would find its way to 7 points. Oklahoma big, I mean BIG. 42 -17.

Virginia Tech at Clemson
(CB says Clem -3.5) Clemson will find out everything it needs to know in this game. Last year they dismantled Ga Tech and then took a beat down in Blacksburg 4 days later on the Thursday night ESPN game. I actually like Clemson to win…just not at 5.5. Clemson 20 Va Tech 17.

Cincinnati at Rutgers (CB says Rutgers -3). This line is at 3.5 and I am really struggling with it. On one hand I love the way Cincinnati is playing and I think they could be for real. (Last week they were an easy pick at San Diego St.) Cincy ruined Rutgers season last year 30-11 in a big upset and I love REVENGE...but I love recent history more. Cincy has covered 12 of 14 and I’ll take the points. Rutgers wins 31-29 but Cincy covers.

Wisconsin at Illinois (CB says Wisky -5.5). This one screams TAKE ME with Wisconsin +2.5. I loved Illinois last week against PSU but I don’t think I am on the band wagon this week. It just seems too obvious. Wisconsin 27 Illinois 17. Let’s not forget the Badgers are the 5th ranked team in the country.

Nebraska at Missouri (CB says Mizou -6) The line is Missouri -7 and I think Mizzou is the better team, especially being at home. They have beaten the Cornhuskers by the exact same score of 41-24 the last 2 games in Columbia. You know what…..Mizzou 41 Nebraska 24. With hockey season starting let’s make it a hat trick!

Georgia Tech at Maryland (CB says Tech -3 and stay away). That is exactly the line and it begs you to take Tech…much like the Virginia game did 2 weeks ago and Clemson – Tech game did last week. That makes it an easy decision. Take the Terps coming off the big win over Rutgers. Terps 23 Tech 21

Random pick of the week: I love one home favorite, who is coming off back to back road losses, more than any other game this season. This is my 5 star lock. Check back after 5pm for more details.


Enjoy a great weekend of college football and check back next week as I head to Knoxville with PINE and a video camera…..can you say YOU TUBE??

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Week 3

That’s it. I’m done. I hate football…..Three weeks into the season and my favorite team has yet to score an offensive TD. Their opening day starting QB was in the stands at the Northern Illinois game Saturday after he decided not to take the team bus to Ann Arbor. Maybe some of the other players should have gone with him… Can it get any worse? Actually, yes it can. ND’s next five opponents Michigan St., Purdue, UCLA, Boston College and USC have a combined record of 13-1 so far this season (UCLA was blown out at Utah this weekend). I hate to say this Charlie, but anyone who watched the first 2 ND games knew this was coming. Michigan has players…ND has nothing! It now is obvious that Weiss and his team wasted the month of August trying to install the spread offense with Jones at the helm. They then abandoned the spread a quarter and half into the first game and watched their former starting QB leave before they played their 3rd game of the season and now they won’t release him from his scholarship. Well doneeee Notre Dame. For Pete’s sake they are averaging 4.3 points a game!!! The good news for me (and for Kimberly) is that 3 weeks into the season I no longer have to emotionally invest anything into Notre Dame Football. If they win a few games, super, if they lose to Navy for the first time since 1963, at least they will have done it in a season that doesn’t matter.

For you ND haters you may find this entertaining. TP I mean you.
http://www.ndspn.com/

Moving on…I have to say it, Tim Tebow is the Real Deal. Yes, I know that is not exactly what every Tennessee (Whitey had another, not so flattering name for him after Saturday’s debacle), Georgia and Florida State fan wants to hear but it is time to face the truth. Tebow is the prototype QB for college football (can run and throw effectively) and more importantly the perfect fit for Urban Meyer. He will make some mistakes like the 95-yard interception to Eric Berry and he may lose to LSU, but he just makes plays. We already knew he was a physical freak, but his passing was excellent against UT (again, sorry Whitey). He threw touch passes, passes while falling down, jump passes, you name it. I can’t wait for the Florida vs. LSU game on October 6th. As for LSU, it must be nice to rest your key players for an entire game in the middle of the season…what is this baseball? Even without QB Matt Flynn and star receiver Early Doucet they managed to beat a Middle Tennessee team 44-0 that had given Louisville a battle the week before.

Speaking of Louisville, they were involved in the best game of the day against intrastate rival, Kentucky. Listen I know this was a huge game in the Commonwealth, but something just didn’t look right when you flipped on this game. First, the game was on ESPN Classic…what’s up with that? I think ESPN was running down the games of the day and somehow this match-up was left off the list until eventually someone piped up and said why not cancel Classic Boxing for 4 hours and put this game where no one will ever find it. ESPN Classic used to be one of my go to channels. Seriously, what ever happened to the great old games and the Sports Century shows? I could watch those all day long. I just clicked the guide and my former favorite channel was filled with the following: Classic Pool, Classic Rodeo, Classic Boxing, American Gladiators (seriously) 4 hours of poker, and finally 2 hours of Classic College football. The good news is you can still watch Stump the Schwab reruns and stand a good chance of catching my episode at least once a month. Other than Mike and Mike in the morning, they only have 2 hours of real programming and it’s on in the middle of the day. I need to be in charge of this channel, Stolz I’ll hire you too.

Ok, back to my reasons why the UK- UL game just didn’t look right. We get used to watching big games in the Coliseum, the Swamp, Neyland Stadium and the Big House but Kentucky? We think of Kentucky in the winter for basketball not the fall. The Cats had not beaten a top ten opponent in 30 years and that’s a lot of whoopin’s in the SEC. Then again maybe it’s just the UK Stadium...it looks like a Texas high school stadium…maybe. You flip to the Alabama game or the Nebraska game and they are playing in NFL-like stadiums with LED and giant scoreboards, even Tech’s stadium looks good on TV. Luckily the broadcast was no reflection on the quality of the game.

You knew one minute into the game that the Cats were going to have a real chance. They recovered a fumble on the opening kickoff that led to a field goal and then they picked off Brohms’ first pass of the game and bam it was 10-0. The two teams and the two QB’s went back and forth all game until finally Kentucky’s Andre Woodson barely out dueled Brian Brohm and Louisville in a fantastic display of offense. (And actually some defense) If you didn’t see the end of this game you need to watch the highlights somewhere. (Hello ESPN Classic) This game had everything that makes college football great, star players, huge plays, end of the game drama, strange coaching decisions on both sides and most importantly passion, passion that other teams (mentioned previously in this blog) seem to lack.

At one point on Saturday night (yes, I know I said I hate football, but I still have to watch to write this ever-so-entertaining blog) we were able to watch Woodson, Brohm, BC’s Matt Ryan and USC’s John David Booty all do their thing. For my money I might say Ryan is the best of the bunch, but all four should be NFL starting QB’s in the near future. You could also flip to the Alabama game to watch Darren McFadden, a future top 5 pick in fantasy football. (I hate fantasy football too I lost 2 games by a total of 4.4 points all thanks to Donavan McNabb. Oops sorry Donavan I didn’t mean to criticize you.)

I am going out on a limb here…Oregon is an excellent football team. They quietly beat the crap out of Fresno St. Saturday night. Yes, the same Fresno St. team that nearly beat Texas A&M last week. They play Cal at home in 2 weeks and if they can win that game it could set up a huge game against USC in the Coliseum October 27th. I think it’s very possible they will hand USC their only loss this season.

Maybe we gave Georgia too much credit for their win over Oklahoma State (kind of like the Tech win over ND). The Cowboys gave up 41 points and 562 yards to Troy on Friday. I watched most of this game and Troy did whatever they wanted to OK St. We will certainly know more about UGA after this week’s trip to Alabama.

I need to give a shout out to my buddy PINE for his horrible picks last week. Not only did he manage to go 0-10 in the LYA (only the 3rd time in history….he had the 2nd as well) but he also used the same picks and went 0-10 in LYA2. Good picking buddy I just hope my games don’t show up on your list this week. Maybe this week you should reverse your picks in one LYA.

For you gamblers out there last week was one of the worst weeks I have ever seen. Two others that will remain nameless also pulled an 0fer on Saturday before winning a few games on Sunday. Everyone was on Georgia Tech, Washington, UCLA, UNC (why) and UNLV against Hawaii. In the NFL it was the Saints and Bengals. I can understand Washington to an extent….mainly due to the media coverage, UCLA was a shocker and the Bengals seemed like a slam dunk in Cleveland. BC was clearly not given enough respect and you might as well flip a coin in the UVA – UNC game. The problem is the games this week don’t look much better.

Here are next week’s games I would watch if I was still a college football fan:

Thursday
Texas A&M at Miami
–I’ll be honest I have no clue what is going to happen in this one. Miami is bad but what is Texas A&M? You always hate picking against the Canes in the Orange Bowl, but things aren’t like they used to be. Take the Canes if you must.

Penn State at Michigan – Michigan’s D shouldn’t struggle against the PSU as they won’t be able to spread them out like App St. or Oregon did. I am not convinced Anthony Morelli can win a big game on the road. I think Michigan we will win in a tight 20-17 type game. Take the home team and the points.

Georgia at Alabama – Did Bama leave it all on the field last weekend against Arkansas? The Tide were in control until the 4th quarter when McFadden and Jones went wild. I don’t see any playmakers like that on UGA, this game is going to come down to Matthew Stafford. We are still waiting for him to have a signature game and the Dawgs need it this week. I like the Dawgs in another tight game.

Kentucky at Arkansas – Apparently the SEC is the only conference playing football this weekend? This is a scary game if you are a Kentucky fan…..very scary. You are coming off a huge win and now you go on the road to face an offense that is much different from Louisville. If the Cats can win again this week people will really start taking notice. I just can’t see them being sky high 2 weeks in a row and stopping McFadden. Hogs by 10.

South Carolina at LSU – LSU is a 16.5 favorite and I am having a hard time convincing myself to take the Old Ball Coach. The Gamecock D is talented and if they can keep their team in the game early and maybe cause a few turnovers this one could be interesting. I’ll take the points but I don’t love it.

Iowa at Wisconsin – There may be more white players on the field than an Ivy League game. These teams always play close games, but it is hard to pick against Wisconsin at home, even though they have been less than impressive so far this season.

Washington at UCLA – Both of these teams were popular picks last week in the LYA…..who knows what will happen when they play in the Rose Bowl this week. What happened to UCLA last week? Utah destroyed the Bruins while Washington played closer than the final score would suggest with Ohio St. I like the Huskies to get back on the winning track.

Michigan St. at Notre Dame – MSU will attempt to be the first team ever to win 6 straight games in South Bend. Why not add another dismal record to the ever growing list that could be set this year (not that I care). The line is now 12.5 and that really makes me sick. If ND can’t find a way to win this week I think they may start 0-8. I like the points and think ND will get their first offensive TD of the year. (please god) It just won’t be enough. 27-17 MSU.

Lastly, since I have now given up all hope on ND football this year and college football in general I needed to find some new hobbies for the fall. What did I do? I joined a Cornhole League…..for those of you that don’t know what I am talking about shame on you. As you can see some people take this stuff pretty seriously. Check out my friends at www.Bagsofglory.com See you next week!

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

WEEK TWO

“Measuring Stick Saturday” (since when did ESPN turn into Fox or CNN) turned out to be blowout Saturday for most of the marquee games. Oklahoma clobbered Miami, Oregon destroyed Michigan, Virginia Tech got smoked at LSU, Penn State easily handled Notre Dame and Texas pulled away from TCU. Even Buffalo killed Temple. Only Georgia vs. South Carolina lived up the hype and that game only had one touchdown.

Random thoughts:

-The Penn State white out was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a college football stadium. On the other hand the game sucked.

-Mark Richt would make just about anyone’s list of the top 10 coaches in college football, yet he continues to make some strange decisions at the end of games. (See BC and Auburn games) This time he chose to kick a field goal on 4th and 15 down 16 – 9 with 4:41 remaining in the game against South Carolina. Why? It did absolutely nothing as Georgia still needed a TD when/if they got the ball back.

-I purchased ESPN game plan Saturday afternoon at 3:30PM and no different games were on Pay per view…..So, I upgraded to the Sports Entertainment package on Comcast. I now get every Fox channel and the NFL Network. (This really comes in handy when you want to watch the replay of the Colorado – ASU game on Sunday morning.) Just for fun I flipped to channel 290 as I was typing this and I immediately got my money’s worth. Bobby Bowden was talking about FSU’s great win over UAB on the Seminole Postgame.

-Game plan came through Saturday night as several good games were available. The worst looking broadcast was easily the Vol Network showing of the UT – Southern Miss game. Shortly after Kimberly commented to me on how bad the TV feed looked I got an email from Whitey saying the following: “There is no bigger Mickey Mouse production in America than this Vol Network telecast. They are idiot homer factually inaccurate hillbillies. You and I could drink 16 crown and cokes and still do a better job than these inbred yokes.” I think that says it all.

-Saturday night starting at 5:45pm there were so many good games on TV I decided we needed two TV’s downstairs. It worked so well the 2nd TV will remain in the living room throughout the season. My wife was actually for the 2nd TV on Saturday night, she is less than thrilled with my long term plan for the living room.

-I predicted Cal, Nebraska or Auburn would lose and Kentucky might struggle against Kent but would still win. Auburn lost, Nebraska escaped and Cal held off a late charge by Colorado St. (For some reason I still doubled Cal and lost) Kentucky struggled early and ended up clobbering Kent.

-I can’t wait for Louisville at Kentucky next week. The early line is the Ville -8.5 (now 7) and the over/under is a whopping 74…….

-What the hell is on the back of Colt Brennan’s head? It looks like he fell asleep on a Sharpie.

- What will happen first: Steve Spurrier kills Blake Mitchell or Mitchell loses all of his hair?

-Why is Virginia Tech still in the Top 25? It must be because they beat East Carolina? That’s all you need to know about the polls. Bye bye Sean Glennon.

-Oops wait there is more…..Nice job by the coaches voting this week. Auburn received more votes than South Florida even after they lost at home to the Bulls.

-Two weeks into the season and I have picked against the Washington Huskies twice, I don’t know that I will go for the trifecta this week. It was a great win by UW and Ty Willingham, how are they not ranked? The oddsmakers are giving them some love as they are only 5 point dogs to Ohio State in Seattle this weekend.

-Michigan’s defense may be bad but Oregon is fun to watch. The second statue of liberty play by QB Dixon was one of the best fakes I have ever seen.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=272510130&confId=5

-Michigan and Notre Dame are both 0-2 for the first time ever….that is a lot of years of football. Now they play each other and both teams will have true freshman at QB. I’m guessing that has never happened before either.

-Colt McCoy threw 7 interceptions all last year and has 4 in two games so far this year. What has happened to the Texas offense?

-Speaking of offense Notre Dame has yet to score an offensive TD. There are 120 teams in 1-A football and ND is in the bottom five in almost every offensive category including 120th in rushing yards with -8. Yes -8.

-PINE is coming back to Atlanta for a fake meeting, the Thrashers opening night, and the Georgia – Tennessee game in Knoxville. Does anyone have an extra ticket for him? Don’t worry he will be asleep and probably shirtless for most of the game. That blog will also be the most entertaining of the year.

-This is a crazy stat…..Georgia Tech has had 104 first down situations after 2 games. The second most in CFB is Louisville with 65.

-Miami is dead and leaving the Orange Bowl next year, FSU struggles to beat UAB at home and Bobby talks about what a big win it was and how UAB beat LSU back in 1999….…..life is good.

-Can it get any worse for the ACC? Actually yes it can…..Next week Maryland plays West Virginia and FSU is at Colorado.

-Road dogs in college were 5-7 last week. Road dogs by touchdown or more were 1-5. WVU was the only team to cover and they did it by one point with less than 2 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.

-Don’t ever listen to Hank Goldberg even when he says Jacksonville has won its’ last 7 home openers by an average of 14 points…..just trust me on this one. I miss Pete Axthelm and Jimmy the Greek.

-Ok this is about the NFL but I couldn’t help myself. Referee Ed Hochuli called a penalty after TO scored a touchdown and then raised his huge arms as much as he could to signal Touchdown. Has anyone checked this guy for HGH? I’m surprised the NFL doesn’t mandate that he stop wearing size medium ref jerseys. Check Ed out: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/players/01/10/nfl.workout0116/index.html


Week 3 games I can’t wait to see:

Louisville at Kentucky – The game of the week and also the upset of the week. This game will come down to turnovers or who wins the coin toss. The winner will score in the 50’s and the loser may do the same. UK 55 UL 52….instant classic. Don't miss it as it actually airs live on ESPN Classic Saturday Night.

Boston College at Georgia Tech – This should be an exciting Saturday night game in Atlanta. Tech’s defense will show Matt Ryan all kinds of looks and will blitz the crap out of him. Can Taylor Bennett pass when Tech needs him the most? This is the week we find out. I like Tech to win in a close game, but take BC and the 7.5 points.

Tennessee at Florida – Both teams lost some key players to injury last week. Tennessee is better prepared for this game after playing 2 quality opponents, but I think Florida will win by a field goal. This will be the Tim Tebow coming out party.

USC at Nebraska – Sorry NO contest here. USC will walk all over the Huskers and their passionate fans. Nebraska is pretender that just doesn’t have the talent to compete with the nations’ elite. I think USC will lose a game….just not here.

OSU at Washington – Freshman QB against the OSU defense….this looks like a total trap. Two weeks ago this line would have been 16 points. I think the Huskies stay in it but OSU wins late by 7-10. (You won’t see this game on my LYA sheet)

West Virginia at Maryland – This week’s Thursday night game should be a good one……not. Maryland can barely beat Florida International. WVU will run away and hide, Marshall gave them a scare last week and it won’t happen again.

Texas at UCF – This is an interesting game only because Texas is at Central Florida to open their new stadium. (No more Citrus Bowl) The place will be rocking but Texas will have too much talent. The spread is low due to UCF’s upset of NC ST. and Texas’ mediocre play. Take advantage of it.

Arkansas at Alabama – Nick Saban’s first big-time game at Bama. I like the way Bama is playing and Arkansas only has one game under its’ belt. Roll Tide!

OK put Notre Dame at Michigan on here. I can’t really say I am looking forward to this game but you know I have to watch it. One team will leave this game with hopes of having a decent season the other heads back to the drawing board.....again. Lloyd Carr will play close to the vest with freshman QB Ryan Mallett. That means the key factor will be how ND contains Mike Hart. Hart has already guaranteed a Michigan victory and Charlie Weiss summed up his comments best. “If I watched our first two games I would probably feel the same way.” I refuse to pick this game, but I don’t see ND winning. Gil/Pfeif if you read this please pick Michigan this week and double them.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007



MAYBE KIMBERLY SHOULD HAVE CHOSEN THE ND STARTING QB!

Week One

Week one of college football is in the books. The one negative of spending the day at a football game (ok besides your team getting crushed) is you don’t get to see much of the games from around the country. I love going to games during the year but I would miss not having some Saturdays on the couch with the remote control and multiple TV’s if I went to games every weekend.

Let’s get the Notre Dame game over first. What a great weekend…Medinah #3 on Thursday afternoon, Cubs game at Wrigley Friday afternoon and the weather for the entire weekend was unbelievable. Low 80’s no humidity and not a single cloud in the sky. On Saturday we made the trek to South Bend in a van with 10 Georgia Tech fans and a lot of liquor. No way was I going repeat my stellar performance from last year on the drive to South Bend. (See blog from UCLA – ND game last year if you don’t know what I am talking about.) Surprisingly there was very little talk about the game on the van….I certainly was not feeling confident and the Georgia Tech folks didn’t seem to know what to expect either.





Three Highlights of the Day (There weren’t many)

1. Before we entered the stadium our Gatorade host Scott took us over to where the ND hoops team tailgates during football weekends. Scott played hoops at ND in the late 80’s and knows the current coaching staff and some of the players. Everyone was gone from the tailgate except for head coach Mike Brey. (It was hard to recognize him without a mock turtle neck and dark suit on.) His hair was still slicked back like it is on the sidelines. We spent the next 10 minutes talking basketball with coach Brey. He tells us about recruiting, his returning 8 players and asks me about the Hawks. (Shocking I know he actually seemed interested too.)

2. Getting to go the field during warm-ups, as the band comes out and plays the fight song and when both teams emerge from the same tunnel we had just walked through was awesome. The security guard literally had to warn Kimberly to stand back so she wouldn’t get run over as the ND players prepared to come on the field. (You can actually see her on NBC cheering in her green shirt as the players come out.) Some of the players on both teams do not look like human beings. I mean every lineman is 6’4” or taller and their necks and heads are enormous. Phillip Wheeler the linebacker from GT must have a larger head than Barry Bonds. It really is unbelievable.



3. As we are standing on the field the PA announcer comes on and slowly says: “Here are some scores from around the country. Late in the 4th quarter Michigan 32- Appalachian St. 31. The whole stadium went bananas. As you can imagine Michigan is not the most popular team in South Bend. There is no jumbotron in Notre Dame Stadium and scores don’t come often so we are completely at the mercy of the PA announcer for another update. Less than 10 minutes later he came back…….”Final score Appalachian St. 34…………..Michigan…………32!” I don’t think most of the 80,000 people knew that this would be the loudest cheer of the day.

Five things I wish I saw live during the first weekend while I was in South Bend:

#1 App State’s upset at Michigan. It is hard to believe a I-AA team has never beaten a team ranked in the AP top 25. (Yes I-AA is the term I will always use. I don’t even recognize the other term and will certainly never type it) Of course practically nobody else saw this game unless you have DirecTV because no one has the Big Ten Network.

(STOLZ actually watched this game on replay – His thoughts: “At the risk of beating a dead horse, if you haven't seen it, the replay of the Appalachian St - Michigan game is a classic. This was a very entertaining game with a great storyline that developed as the game went on. And unbelievably, Michigan had multiple opportunities to put the game away. But believe me, from what I could see, App St would beat a lot of Div I teams. I would also look for Michigan to struggle again this week. Oregon runs a spread offense and has been one of the more potent offensive teams in the Pac 10 for years. In their last 3 games, against spread offenses, Michigan has given up 1500 yards and over 100 points. I look for this to be a shootout (bet the over?) but Michigan will score more often against a soft Pac 10 defense.”

I said Lloyd Carr would retire if he lost to OSU. That might not even matter now. I can’t say I will miss him. How can Mario Manningham only catch 2 passes before the final drive? He is a bad bad coach.

#2 The first half of the Cal – Tennessee game. I thought Cal would win this game but who knew 52 points would be scored in the first half. I watched most of the 4th quarter and even late in the game the speed was amazing. I thought I was watching a college basketball game. Cal definitely has a shot to knock off USC later in the season.

#3. Colt Brennan and Hawaii. This may the best reason to order College Football Game Plan. Colt was 34 for 40 for 416 yards and 6 touchdowns in the first half! He didn’t even play a snap in the second half. This is hard to even fathom after watching ND put up 122 total yards.

#4 UCF’s upset of NC State. Thanks to App State this was an after thought upset but congrats to George O’Leary for their big win. NC State mounted a furious comeback in the 2nd half after trailing 25-3, falling short only when their 2 point conversion was unsuccessful halfway through the 4th quarter.

#5 The pre-game tribute at Virginia Tech to the 32 people killed last spring. ESPN did a great job of showing this on SportsCenter Saturday night but the emotion of the moment must have been unbelievable. As for the football, I wouldn’t have missed much. 17-7 over ECU with only 1 offensive TD. I am still not a Sean Glennon believer. Let’s see if he can prove me wrong in Baton Rouge.


This coming week is going to be an even better one for viewing and that is exactly what I will be doing. I turned down going to the SC – UGA game just so I could catch all of these games

10 games I want to see………

South Carolina at UGA….The Dawgs looked impressive against Okie St. can they beat Spurrier again? Every year SC sucks me in, not this time. Dawgs -5 is the pick.

Miami at Oklahoma – Can Oklahoma hang 79 on the U? No way but we will see what they really have against Miami’s D. I like the Canes and the 10.5 points.

Virginia Tech at LSU – Wow 12 points seems like a ton in this match-up. If you made me pick this one I would take the points but I just don’t like the Va Tech offense. I am staying away from this one.

ND at PSU – I know this could be a terrible game. But the Irish are going with true frosh Jimmy Clausen and that alone is reason to tune in. ND hasn’t played in Happy Valley since 1991 and the atmosphere is going to be amazing. I don’t think they can win but 17 is an awful lot of points.

BYU at UCLA
- This could be a great game that no one on the east coast will see. The winner of this game is off and running. I like the Bruins -7.

Oregon at Michigan – Can UM rebound, will they be able to stop the Oregon spread offense? If Michigan loses this game Lloyd Carr will be booed off the field. Can you feel the tension in Ann Arbor? I’ll take the 8 points and watch this shoot-out.

TCU at Texas – Is Texas as bad as they looked last week? Arkansas St. out-gained them on their home field. TCU never loses when they allow 17 or less points. Texas will score more than 17 but they won’t cover the 9.5.

Boise St. at Washington – Coming off its’ best win (ok it was only Syracuse) under Ty Washington enters a brutal stretch of games. I think Boise will have too much in this one but I will enjoy watching Jake Locker try to pull off the upset. Boise -5.

Wisconsin at UNLV - Vegas has ruined all of the fun with this one by making the line way too big. Last time these teams met in Vegas there was a big controversy when the power went out with 7:41 left and all bets were called off. The power won’t go out but Wisconsin fans will be sad if the bet on their beloved Badgers. Take Vegas and the 25 points.

Buffalo at Temple – WOW this could be the worst match of 1-A teams in the history of college football. Buffalo won a thriller 9-3 last year and I think they will prevail again this year.

Upset specials: One of these teams will lose this week Auburn, Cal or Nebraska. (Kentucky would be the 4th team but I think they will survive.)


FSU at Clemson – Monday Night typed as I watched.

I can’t tell you how glad I am that ESPN/ABC finally scrapped the Miami – FSU game on the first Monday night of the season. The last few games between the U and FSU have been painful to watch. Clemson brings two of the nation’s best running backs and some new blood to Labor Day. It also makes for a long Tuesday (or a day off) for lots of Clemson and FSU fans that are attending the game from Atlanta. I can’t imagine Dougie Fresh is going to be very productive at work on Tuesday AM.

The broadcast leads off with the first Jimbo Fisher mention of the night. It is unbelievable that this is the lead story ESPN has come up with for this game. The energy at Death Valley is electric and I feel good about my Clemson pick. Holly Rowe jumps in and tells us about a bomb threat on the Clemson campus during the day. She says spoke to several Clemson fans about the threat and asked if they were worried….They all responded: “Nah we are only worried about the game.” You have got to love football in the South. Does Holly Rowe have naked pictures of someone at ESPN? I just don’t think she is that good. (More on this later)

1st half

FSU gets the ball first and Weatherford runs for 22 yards on the 1st play…..hmmmm maybe this new offensive coordinator is good. The good feelings for the FSU offense don’t last and they are forced to punt 3 plays later. Clemson at least moves the ball until they are forced to punt. They use the direct snap play to their running back in the first series. This has become the hot new play in college football as teams have gone away from running quarterbacks. (I will give Bobby Bowden some credit as he used this with Warrick Dunn years ago.)

FSU and Clemson trade a few possesions, and there is no score but you can feel the momentum squarely on Clemson’s side. Clemson finally cashes in on a nice TD pass to the tight end. (At least Harper shows he can throw) Less than a minute later FSU fumbles and James Davis breaks off a beautiful 29 yard TD run. It doesn’t get much better than this….we may have a blowout.

Now it’s 21 – 0 and FSU is being completely dominated on both sides of the ball. FSU manages a field goal after a blocked punt. Doesn’t Clemson always have bad special teams??? How is this possible?

As the half winds down ESPN shows Jimbo for at least the third time. WOW his influence is really being felt so far. A graphic shows FSU has run 31 plays for 62 yards and 22 of those came on the first play. They have a grand total of 1 first down, which also came on the 1st play. Now we get the second best highlight of the half. Holly Rowe grabs grandpa Bowden as he leaves the field. Coach – “How do you assess your new offenses’ performance in the first half?” First off, what a terrible question…..it’s like asking Ari how he liked Medellin after he slept through the movie premier. The sad thing is it works because grandpa’s answer is priceless. “Our offense……..and our defense does not look good at all. It comes down to blocking and tackling, they are blocking and we’re not, they are tackling and we’re not. It’s as simple as that, if we can turn that around we would probably be ahead.” Huh? Good stuff coming from your head coach and now you know why I argued that FSU is over-rated and would lose this game.

24-3 Clemson!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2nd Half

Clemson punts and on their first position and FSU actually shows some life but after converting a few first downs the ball goes back to Clemson.

My god Clemson is trying to let FSU back in this game. They allowed a blocked punt in the first half and now they snap the ball over the punters head and he runs 30 yards through the end zone for a safety. (Interesting decision) 24-5 Clemson with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd.

After the free kick FSU looks like a new team…..suddenly Antone Smith breaks off a 50 yard run giving them a first and goal. One play later Smith scores and FSU misses the 2 point conversion. 24-11 with a quarter to go…..I’m not worried yet, but I certainly would like to see a long sustained Clemson drive.

OK for the first time tonight I am concerned….I still think with 3.5 points I am ok but the momentum has done a 180 turn and you can see it written all over the faces of most of the 83,000 fans in attendance. Somehow Clemson just avoided another safety by getting a face mask penalty and then grounding the ball from the end zone. I’m not quite sure that was called properly but they are not yet out of the woods as they have to punt from the end zone. (Maybe they should just concede another safety now) OH GOD…..run clock run. FSU nearly runs back the kick and gets the ball at the Clemson 32. The Clemson D steps up and forces a 4th and 3. Bobby passes on the field goal and FSU converts on a Weatherford pass. (Do you think Bobby even knew it was 4th down?)

If Clemson can force a field goal here it would be a huge win for the Defense. Well that’s not happening, Weatherford hangs in the pocket as long as he can and finally finds an open receiver (Unfortunately not Fagg) for a TD. Wow…….what a comeback by FSU it is now 24-18 with 11 minutes left. I do like the fact that overtime seems unlikely based on the 6 point spread right now, but Clemson is imploding so anything is possible. I hope if FSU is going to win this game it will be 25-24. Sorry Fresh.

Clemson gets the ball and immediately gets a penalty…..1st and 20. I find myself just praying that Clemson will hold onto the ball and not fumble. I can’t believe this is the same game I was watching an hour ago. Luckily Clemson gets a few first downs and kills just over 5 minutes off the clock…..then came the biggest break of the game. The Clemson punt hits on the 1 yard line and somehow goes backwards to the 3 yard line. FSU goes 3 and out and now Clemson has the ball with 5:28 to go inside FSU territory……2 first downs and this game may be over. Come on Tommy…but again they can not end the game…..3 plays and no first down. FSU will get one more possession from the 20 yard line with 3:41 left and 1 timeout. First down FSU…..god I wish we could have a split screen with Doug in the stands on one side of the split screen. Seriously how great would it be to watch as he rocks back and forth, covers his eyes and nervously gulps down his bourbon drink. He may not make it home if Clemson loses this game.

4th and 10…………Here we go………….SACK! ESPN then goes right to a shot of Bobby……dagggggggommmmitttttttt

FSU actually gets two more plays but there is no time left and Clemson wins 24-18. It’s never easy but I manage to go 6-2 for the week. (8-2 in the LYA) I won my two doubles Colorado and Iowa by a total of 1.5 points, sometimes it pays to be lucky.

What did I learn from this game…..Clemson is talented but sooner or later they will break the hearts of their fans by losing a gut wrenching game that is there for the taking. FSU appears to have something to build on. Weatherford played much better in the 2nd half and FSU actually developed a running game with Antone Smith. They are still no where near what they once were but they could find a way to win 8 games.

See you next week!

Monday, August 27, 2007

Monday August 27, 2007

There are exactly 3 days left before the very first college football games of the season on Thursday August 30th (I also leave for the ND – Georgia Tech game on this day) and 5 days until our very first Saturday of College Football…….THANK GOD!

I started this blog last year as I sat at home on the Sunday night of the very first College Football weekend with so many thoughts, observations and predictions but no one to discuss them with. Don’t get me wrong my wife Kimberly loves college football about as much as any girl I have ever met, but I can only talk about the 3 way race for the starting QB job at Notre Dame so many times before she loses interest. (I just interrupted her reading a book to see if she could name the 3 QB’s…..she immediately rattled off Jimmy Clausen, Evan Sharpley and the black kid…..(Demetrius Jones) she also knew exactly how many years of eligibility they each have remaining. She has been listening…..but you get my point, she can only take so much. So here I am back for year two with a full preview of what to watch for as we get ready for another great college and unpredictable football season…..

The preseason top 10 rankings are filled with the usual suspects: USC, LSU, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin. What an original group! Some of these teams are loaded with returning players while others would be in the preseason top ten if they had Larry Jones penciled in at QB. Rather than break down each of these teams and tell you how great they are I am going to tell you why each of them could slip out of the top 10 or maybe even the top 25. Now granted USC is not likely to be 8-4 or 7-5 but I think you will be surprised at the way things worked out last year. I took a look at last season’s preseason and end of the season rankings: All of the following teams were unranked in the preseason polls: Rutgers #12, (final USA Today ranking) Wisconsin #5, Boise St. #6, Arkansas #16, BYU #15, Wake Forest #17 and Boston College #20. That is 7 of the final top 20 and two teams in the top 6. So much for preseason polls!

Here is why each of these teams could struggle this coming season:

USC – There is no Dwayne Jarrett or Steve Smith to make John David Booty look good. (Carson Palmer or Matt Leinhart he is not) They lost offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and have no proven running back after losing their leading rusher to Florida (transfer) They have a very tough road schedule: At Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, Cal and ASU. Not to mention they are breaking in a new kicker….will this eventually hurt them? (They haven’t kicked very many meaningful field goals over the last 5 years.) UCLA finally beat them and seem to be a team on the rise….if nothing else they are no longer a pushover. Lastly, we have seen one transfer, can Pete Carroll keep all of these 5 star recruits happy?

LSU– Loaded with talent but must replace their star QB and starting receivers. Yes Matt Flynn has played before but how will he do against SEC defenses week in and week out? Virginia Tech and their excellent defense will be the first test. Do you really trust Les Miles in a close game? (See Florida and Auburn last year) The wild card in the SEC this season is Alabama. Do you really think Nick Saban will just roll over when they host the Tigers in November? Lastly it just seems too easy to ride the LSU bandwagon with the BCS Championship game being in New Orleans. I think it is the Saints year not the Bayou Bengals.

Florida – So few teams can follow one Championship team with another. They have a new QB, Tim Tebow, who is under tremendous pressure. Eight starters on defense are long gone, including Reggie Nelson and Jarvis Moss. They must travel to LSU in October and play road games at both Kentucky and South Carolina who both appear to be much improved in the scary SEC East. I didn’t even mention games against Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia and FSU. Florida will be good….just not that good. Chris Leak may be missed more than most Florida people care to admit.

Texas – This team was ranked in the top 5 in both polls last season and managed to lose 3 games. We have seen so many star players head to the NFL in the last 2 seasons will it finally catch up to the Longhorns? Do you really believe in Colt McCoy? Can he and his newly rebuilt body stay healthy over a 14 game schedule? How many more times can they run the story of him saving a life on the lake last summer? I wonder what he did for an encore this offseason? I can’t wait for this Game Day story. Lastly will they be able to stay interested during the boring Big 12 schedule? If it wasn’t for first half bets I know I wouldn’t be interested.

Oklahoma – There is no Adrian Peterson and no QB as of yet. How is it that a school like Oklahoma is without a clear cut #1 QB for two straight seasons? Is it me or didn’t you think Bob Stoops would have 3 National Titles by now? Is it possible that he isn’t as great a coach as we thought?

Michigan - This is an easy one….the more you expect from Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines the less you usually get. We forget they were 7 point dogs heading into South Bend last season. That game seemed to be the turning point until they were beaten soundly by OSU and USC again to finish 11-2. YES they have all of their offensive stars back, but does Michigan ever win with lots of offense? The answer is no, and the defense must replace too many key players to expect the same kind of season as they had last year. Carr will retire if he loses to OSU again. I wonder who would win if he coached against John Cooper now?

West Virginia- Pat White and Steve Slaton are sure to run all over the Big East and the rest of their foes but can the defense stop anyone? I guess it must be tough when you only come off the field for 2-3 plays like their defense often does. Brian Brohm carved WVU up last season and why should we expect anything different this time around? This is a two man team and if something happens to either player WVU could easily lose 3-4 games. Road games at Maryland, South Florida and Rutgers will not be gimmies.

Virginia Tech – They play at LSU in week 2 and have a very mediocre QB in Sean Glennon. (He is a nice guy and loves dogs though) Georgia Tech came into Blacksburg and won last year and someone else will do the same thing this season. They will certainly be a sentimental choice this season after the tragedy that took place last spring, but emotion can only help your starting QB so much.

Wisconsin – Totally under the radar last season and way over rated this year. Pollsters do this way too much. They lost massive Tackle Joe Thomas and gain Ohio State on the Big Ten schedule. This team won’t sneak up on anyone and must replace steady QB John Stocco.

Top 25 Conference Breakdown
SEC – 6 teams
BIG TEN – 4 teams
ACC – 2 teams
BIG EAST – 3 teams
PAC TEN – 3 teams
BIG 12 – 4 teams
CONFERENCE USA – 1 team
WAC – 2 teams


SCHEDULING

Scheduling is clearly the biggest challenge in today’s CFB world and there is nothing I love more than digging into every teams out of conference schedule to see what cool games are happening each year. Sometimes I even start looking at schedules for future seasons… yes I know I have a problem. Unlike the NFL where teams may go 3 or 4 years without playing each other sometimes traditional teams go 20, 30, 40 years without playing each other. The key now is you must schedule enough quality opponents to get credit for big wins, but not so many good teams that you can’t make it through the season with 1 loss or less. Big games can propel you through the season or can kill your hopes before Labor Day…..so let’s take a look at each BCS conference and see what teams are doing this season.

SEC

There is no question the SEC is again the deepest conference in America. The East is loaded with the usual suspects Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. However, South Carolina or Kentucky could easily sneak into the top 25 with an early season upset. Arkansas plays in the weaker West Division but plays a pathetic out of conference schedule (Troy, N. Texas, UT Chattanooga and Fla International) isn’t it a good thing we added a 12th game so Arkansas could play Fla Int’l or UTC…..COME ON! How about playing at least one team from a BCS conference. These games will come back to haunt Arkansas and McFadden if they don’t pull an upset or two against the likes of Auburn or LSU. McFadden can’t win a Heisman Trophy playing in games no one cares about or will ever see highlights from. He already plays in Arkansas…..enough said.

In all seriousness why in the world did the NCAA add a 12th game to schedule? Very few teams have actually used this game to play a decent opponent, UGA being one of those teams. They host Oklahoma St. in week one and then play traditional rival Georgia Tech in the season finale. Tennessee goes on the road to Cal and plays Southern Miss….2 very respectable games. The best non-conference game by an SEC team is LSU hosting Virginia Tech. (Seriously this must have been a mistake by Virginia Tech, they never play anyone but cupcakes out of conference?) This game may be as close as we get in September to replacing the Ohio St. vs. Texas games the last 2 years

ACC

Anyone who knows me knows how I feel about ACC football. I can’t even contain myself thinking about the first Lincoln Financial Game of the Week…..Wake at Virginia in week 2 and you think I’m kidding. However, I am surprised that only two ACC teams are ranked and one of them is FSU. Apparently no one remembers FSU lost at home in November to Wake Forest 30-0….yes 30-0 at home. With Miami and FSU being in down cycles this league is really desperate to have another program step up and consistently establish itself. Seriously if you switched the jerseys in the locker rooms could you really tell NC State and BC apart…..heck they almost share the same coach. What about Maryland, or Clemson? Same for Georgia Tech or Virginia. If you play in the ACC you must play at least 2 decent out of conference games, maybe 3 if you play DUKE every year. The SEC can make some excuses because the conference is so tough but that doesn’t fly in the ACC. Now as much as I hate FSU, I give them credit for playing UAB, at Colorado, Alabama in Jacksonville and of course Florida. Maybe I am way off here but I see them losing at least 4 games and if they lose at Clemson on Monday September 3rd it will be even worse. (Unbelievably they are 3.5 favorites on the road in this game….can you say lock?) I have heard more about Jimbo Covert since FSU hired him as their offensive coordinator, you would think he is playing QB. (This is part of what I call 6 degrees of LSU’s pounding of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl last January. #1 JeMarcus Russell throws for 900 yards against Rudy like defensive backs and vaults to the number one pick in the NFL draft. #2 Brady Quinn is suddenly terrible and spends a week in the green room until pick # 22. #3 Jimbo Covert is an offensive genius. #4 LSU will win the 2007-2008 national title. #5 Notre Dame will start 1-6. #6 I hate Mark May – sorry I had to throw that one in there.) No doubt Jimbo is an upgrade from Jeff Bowden, but Pops calling plays would be an upgrade from Jeff Bowden. You don’t lose 30-0 against Wake because you have a bad offensive coordinator, you lose like that because your talent level is down and your team lacks heart and discipline. Speaking of Wake, the defending ACC Champs (that just sounds weird) play what must be the biggest non conference game in their history when they host Nebraska. Clemson really makes the crappy drive to Death Valley worth while during 3 weekends by playing LA Monroe, Furman and Central Michigan, before ending with traditional rival South Carolina. UNC begins the Butch Davis era by hosting South Carolina in an interesting match-up. Within 2-3 years Chapel Hill might actually be a tough place to play as Davis has done a great job recruiting already. BC and Georgia Tech, who both expect to be in contention in the ACC make the pilgrimage to South Bend and host Army. (That’s a lot of gold helmets.)


BIG TEN

The Buckeyes bad loss in the NC game really hurt the Big Ten’s reputation. Last year I compared teams from the Big Ten and the SEC during the season and outside of OSU and Michigan the Big Ten was a big underdog. (Wisconsin did beat Arkansas in the bowl game last year, for whatever that is worth.) I am not going to lie I actually enjoy watching Big Ten football, at least when Bob Davie is not announcing them. I know they don’t always have the best athletes and they sometimes run gimcky offenses, but there is just something about cold weather football that I love.

In looking at the Big Ten out of conference games you don’t see much out of the ordinary. Michigan begins a home and home series with Oregon and plays Notre Dame and 1AA Champion Appalachian. St. hmmm that should be interesting…. Ohio St. drops Texas and gains a game at Washington. I recently read somewhere that OSU’s first 4 games spell out the word yawn. (Youngstown, Akron, Washington, Northwestern) Strangely enough the Big Ten is involved in 3 of the top 4 games that have the toughest ticket this season. According to Ticket broker Ticketcity.com Notre Dame at PSU is the toughest ticket at $1100 a ducat, Michigan vs. OSU is second at $1000 and ND at Michigan is 4th at $696. While those games should be great to watch the game I am most interested in seeing is the “TRANSFORMER GAME IN THE DESERT”. This of course is the rematch between Wisconsin at UNLV. If you remember correctly these 2 teams played each other in 2002 and the game had a very interesting ending. http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2002/Sep-05-Thu-2002/sports/19565995.html

The game was called with 7:41 remaining due to a mysterious power outage with Wisconsin comfortably in front. In Vegas this means the game is off the board (55 minutes must be played) and money bet on either team would be returned to the person that placed the wager. (With PINE in Vegas now anything is now possible) It is no small coincidence that thousands of Badger fans had made the trip to Vegas and bet a lot of money on their beloved Badgers. You better believe I will be watching the line on this one, if I remember correctly I was all over this game in the LYA last time around. Luckily we don’t have the 55 minute rule.

BIG 12

Texas and Ohio St. dominated the early season title discussions the last two years as they matched up in prime time in week two. The road team prevailed in each game and shot straight to the BCS title game. Texas has replaced OSU with TCU and this year there isn’t really one great early season inter-conference game that everyone will be talking about. (Maybe Va Tech at LSU) USC at Nebraska could be a very interesting early game but until Nebraska actually wins a game like this they will remain a heavy underdog even in Lincoln. Miami plays two Big 12 games at Oklahoma and home versus Texas A&M. The Oklahoma game is sure to stir up some memories from the late 80’s match-ups between Vinny Testaverde and Brian Bosworth. (Barry Switzer lost 29 games in over 15 years and 3 of those were to Miami in 85, 86 and 87.)

PAC 10

The Pac 10 is the only major BCS conference to play 9 league games. This gives each team only 3 other opportunities to play games around the country. Washington goes into the season with nation’s toughest schedule. (According to those so-called experts) They play at Syracuse, home against Boise St. and then host Ohio St. They also scheduled a 13th game at Hawaii to end the season. USC plays at Nebraska and ND and Arizona St. plays at Colorado. I know ASU and Colorado won’t be prime time game but I had to mention the fact that Dennis Erickson is coaching at ASU. Somehow this had completely escaped me until reading the Pac Ten preview. It will be interesting to see if Erickson can change the pretty boy image at ASU and bring in some thugs like he has done at Oregon St. and Miami. Some guys just never go away. I already mentioned Cal playing Tennessee and lastly UCLA plays an impressive out of conference schedule: BYU, Utah and Notre Dame.

BIG EAST

I saved the Big East for last for a reason….only about 5 games in the Big East matter. This league plays 7 conference games because they have so few teams. (There are 24 Big East basketball teams but only 8 football teams.) Sadly very few out of conference games stick out for the right reasons. Pitt vs. Grambling and Rutgers vs. Norfolk St. should be good ones! WVU and Rutgers both play Maryland. Louisville plays at Kentucky and at NC State and hosts Utah and that’s about it. NOW the Big East does have one thing going for it this year…..they are trying to play all of their games before Saturday each week. Seriously, between Rutgers, WVU and Louisville they play 14 total games on Thursdays and Fridays

There you go, that is my preseason breakdown of what to look for in the upcoming season. I have no idea what this season will bring me personally as my favorite team, Notre Dame, could be in for a long season and my main subject during most of the blogs last year is now 3 time zones away. Football season certainly won’t be the same without PINE drinking himself into a frenzy in Knoxville or calling me about preseason NFL games, halftime bets and what time his picks are due. I often wonder how he will do with games taking place at 9 and 10am in the morning and casino sports books being so close to his basement. In his honor (and because he cheats) I am not going to make any picks in week one until Thursday/Friday when the LYA starts however I will mention a few interesting games. Both involve home dogs……Clemson over FSU and Syracuse over Washington. Good luck!

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Week 11 - November 11, 2006

This was the final week before the biggest game of the new century. Ohio State was a 20 something point favorite at Northwestern (a place they lost in 2004) and Michigan was a 19 point favorite at Indiana. There was no doubt that both teams were definitely looking ahead……and you know what IT DIDN’T MATTER! They each ran away and hid early……and now it is finally time to talk about the biggest game of the year Michigan at Ohio State. By the time they kick off at 3:45pm on Saturday every story line about Michigan and OSU will be beaten to death. I can't even imagine how excited Brent Musburger is going to be, you can hear it in his voice on the commercials already. He will have more cliches ready then Mr. Booyau himself Stuart Scott. In order to make it through the game, try this. Apparently the Brent Musburger Drinking Game is a big hit.

http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/005660.php

My favorite Michigan football memory actually has nothing at all to do with the Ohio State game or any Michigan game at all. It took place when I was in college and a blizzard hit Greenville, South Carolina. (3 inches) Snow in Greenville meant drinking, drinking and more drinking....along with other tomfoolery. On this night while drinking heavily we decided 2 things. One it would be a great night to shave my buddy Halvorsen's head (For the 2nd time) and once it was completley shaved we needed to find black electric tape. Why electric tape? Well of course to tape the Michigan Wolverine helmet stripes on to his bald head. His nickname was the wrecking ball, so a helmet, even one of tape seemed like a good idea. You would be shocked how well this turned out. The only thing that would be better than seeing his little bald head full of black stripes would be having a picture of it right now.

Let’s recap week 11 before we get to THE BIG GAME.

Strangest line of the week:

Wake Forrest at Florida St. – On Monday FSU was favored by 5……by game time on Saturday this game was a 9.5 point spread for FSU. This is one of those rare times where the Oddsmakers were way off……Never does a line climb almost 5 points during a week with there being a significant injury, suspension or some other act of God. This is the same FSU team that has lost at home to Clemson and BC and on the road at NC St. and Miami. I just can’t believe the Danny Sheridan’s’ of the world and the bettors let one decent performance against UVA taint their minds. Right now FSU is living off of who they used to be. 5 or 10 years ago could you have imagined Wake coming to Talle and blanking the mighty Noles 30-0? Give credit to those in the LYAI and II as no one took FSU and at least half of the group took Wake. Oh by the way all of this happened with PINE placing $200 on Wake. If anything could have thrown this game off that certainly would have been it. Bobby we love you, stick around another 10 years.

Screw Job of the Week

Cincinnati at West Virginia

The line on this game was anywhere from 17 – 19 points in WVU’s favor. At the end of the 3rd quarter WVU led 42-10 and looked to be in a position to cover easily. The Bearcats scored early in the 4th and chose to go for 2 points…..they were unsuccessful. With 5 minutes to go in the game the Cats score again. Again they will attempt a 2 point play….this time the 2 pointer has to come from 15 yards away after a penalty. And yes they made the 2 point try. Final score 42-24….an 18 point spread. Now depending on your line and the team you picked you may have won or lost all because of a random 2 point play from the 15 yard line with 5 minutes remaining in a meaningless 4th quarter. That’s why you shouldn’t bet!

OVER/UNDER Madness

Hawaii’s lines have become ridiculous…..yet they continue to cover. The Rainbow Warriors are 7-1-1 against the number this year. The last 3 weeks they have easily covered 25.5, 24 and 36.5 points. They have scored over 60 points 3 of the last 4 weeks. These are Sega football numbers……not NCAA numbers. At game time the over under on the game was 77 points, in case you are bad at math that is 11 touchdowns. It would seem like 11 Td’s requires an awful lot of things to go right……or wrong, depending on which side you are on. Amazingly LA Tech scores a TD with 16 seconds on the clock to make the final score 61-17…….oh yes 78 total points. Now this line is what we have come to expect from the oddsmakers. I must give my friend Mike Pine some credit for a smart betting move. (For once) Maybe it was just dumb luck, but when we discussed the O/U and he said “What do you think about a teaser” (Never good words to hear…..teasers exist only because they tease you into thinking that you will win easily.) “I’ll tease the Hawaii O/U to 83 and the USC line to -3…what do you think?” This teaser actually saved his ass. Maybe things have turned around for Pine. He recently told me that he had made 33 bets and only won 5! Ouch. He was so disappointed he stopped completing his gambling spreadsheet as it was just way too depressing.

While Hawaii is one of the better teams against the spread this season they are not the best. Now some these records can be off just a bit because lines move and sometimes you may place a bet before or after these movements.


Best:
Nevada 9-1
BYU 9-1
C. Michigan 9-1
East Carolina 9-1
Ohio St. 9-2
Wisconsin 8-1-1


Where there is good there is also bad:

Fresno St. 0-9 (This is bizarre to me because I actually picked against Fresno when they played at LSU and lost….the spread moved from 33 to 31 and LSU won by 32. In case you care the Tigers also had the ball inside the 5 yard line as time ran out. I am not bitter at all.

Iowa – 1-9 Once upon a time they were a Top 10 team.
Stanford – 2-8
Michigan St. 2-8-1
Iowa St. 2-8


I can’t write a blog without talking about the ND at Air Force game. These 2 teams play every few years and usually the games are relatively close despite the considerable edge in talent. The last game was back when Ty Willingham was in his Honeymoon faze at Notre Dame the Irish were 6-0 and facing a 6-0 Falcon team who were actually 3 point favorites at home. ND won 21-14, although the game wasn’t really that close. That was the first time I had ever watched an Air Force – ND game with the Flytrap Mike Pine. He and his Dad the Cornel hate Notre Dame with a passion. I won $100 from him that night on the game and I’m not sure he actually ever watched one play of the game because he was liquored up before kick-off. Oh how things have changed since Ty left for Washington. Flytrap was supposed to meet me downtown at my old condo because the game was only available on DirecTV. The initial plan was to meet at 4pm when toe met leather and then afterwards we would go out and have a few beers. Anyone who knows Pine well could have figured this out, but yes his wife was out of town. As much as we love Pine we all know he is only allowed to leave his neighborhood when his other half is in another state. The one big problem for him now is that sometimes when she leaves Pine is the one responsible for his 2 young daughters. This was one of those times. He and the girls made it downtown at 6pm (only 2 hours after kick-off)….the 3rd quarter had begun and the game was no longer in doubt. The girls were there to stay and there was no baby sitter available so going out wasn't an option.

Much like Pine on this night….The Force had little fight in them. ND scored in 54 seconds on two plays from 80 yards and the game was never close after this. The strange thing is the Force didn’t really seem to care that ND was running and passing all over them. That is a bad sign when you are an Air Force fan, if nothing else the service academies always care.

Team of the Week (The Rutgers Award)

This is a tie between Georgia and Kansas St. UGA has had a disappointing season losing not only to Tennessee and Florida, but also to Vandy and Kentucky. Not since Ray Goff have we seen that. The truth is the convincing win over Auburn and a possible victory at home against Georgia Tech in 2 weeks would actually let many UGA fans forget about what downer season it has been. 8-4 in a rebuilding year in the SEC is not all that bad. What has been worse this year is that Georgia has really only had one impressive win that being at South Carolina. Beating Auburn gives Dawgs fans hope and reminds the stupid ones that Mark Richt is an excellent head coach and they are lucky to have him.

Kansas St. – Since Bill Snyder retired the Wildcats have slipped back closer to reality. This win over Texas puts K-St. back on the map. My buddy McGruder said K-St. will win the BIG 12 in the next few years…..he actually told me to write that in the blog. We shall see. I couldn’t actually watch any of this game because ABC refused to leave the FSU – Wake blow-out even in the 4th quarter. What I found funny was that no one was left in the Stadium in Talle and the viewers were being forced to watch every last pathetic play. Good job ABC.

THE BIG GAME

For the first time in their unbelievable history Mee-cha-gan and Ohio State will play each other as the #1 and #2 teams in the country. The early line on this game is slightly higher than I would have guessed….OSU is favored by 6.5 or 7 points. The big question is if Michigan is able to go into Columbus and defeat a 7 point favorite at home should the Buckeyes get a do over in January? My vote would be no….unfortunately I don’t yet have a vote. To me this is the National Championship Game. These are clearly the two best teams in college football as they have both completed an 11 game schedule in a major conference with a perfect record. Michigan won at #2 Notre Dame and OSU won at #2 and defending champ Texas. You may like the story of Rutgers or the consistency of Boise St. but these teams are not the same caliber as Michigan and OSU.

I actually had a chance to attend this game in Ann Arbor 3 years ago. Michigan won the game and it became very apparent to me that the hate between the fans at Michigan and OSU was extremely deep. Ohio fans often refer to Michigan as that state up north. My buddy Ric couldn’t get out of the Big House fast enough and referred to the Big House as a shit hole more than once. The funny thing is until recently OSU fans dreaded the Michigan game. OSU had been in 2-10-1 from 1988 through 2000. Now OSU has won 4 of the last 5 and shoe is definitely on the other foot. On top of that Michigan has not beaten a number one team since knocking off Miami in 1984. They will have their hands full with Troy Smith and OSU. The last 2 years Smith has single handedly beaten Michigan with his mobility and his arm. If he can do that again on Saturday he will leave with the Heisman Trophy and a date in Glendale, Arizona on January 8th.

This gets me to one the most ridiculous things about this game. In the last 2.5 months each of these teams has managed to play 11 football games. After Saturday’s contest the winner (and maybe the loser) will have to wait 51 days before playing their next real game. Are you kidding me??? This is truly a joke. Do we really think we will see the same team in 51 days? Can you imagine winning the NFC or AFC Championship game and playing the Super Bowl 7 weeks later? What about making the Final Four and waiting until May to play the Semi-finals. This is the most asinine thing in College Football. I mean waiting until New Year’s Day was bad enough…..now let’s add another week. You really have to wonder if anyone in the NCAA actually thinks about what they are doing.

Week 12 Lines and Predictions:

WVU -10.5 at Pitt – WVU will roll in the “Backyard Brawl”

Va Tech -2 at Wake – Wake is still not getting any respect. They win again.

Rutgers -6.5 at Cincy – Rutgers will barely escape setting up a huge game in Morgantown. Take Cincy and the points.

Auburn -3 at Alabama – Auburn will use D and special teams to win in a game that I won't watch a single play of.

BC -7 vs. Maryland – I would take Maryland and the points, they may win straight up.

USC -5.5 vs. Cal – Cal and the points. We will find out if the USC defense really is better.

Michigan +6.5 at OSU – I’d like to think Michigan can win. I am just not a huge fan of Chad Henne in big games. Mario Manningham made him look great early in the season, but I think he will struggle on Saturday. OSU just has too many playmakers and one (or more) of them will be the difference.

OSU 31 Michigan 17
Week 10 November 4, 2006

I am not going to lie after Thursday night I didn’t find it to be a particularly great week of college football. Yes the LSU vs. Tennessee game was a good one, yes it was a huge win for Kentucky over Georgia and yes both Michigan and Ohio St were in relatively close games.

WVU and Louisville

I have not been a fan of West Virginia all season so last Thursday was great to watch for me. Take nothing away from White, Slaton and the wide receiver Renard, these are all very talented players with tons of speed and elusiveness. (I would love any of them to be at Notre Dame) However, this is a flawed team. When they get behind or are forced into long yardage situations they can not drop back and consistently complete passes for first downs. This has rarely been exposed during the 2006 season as WVU has not played anyone that could field similar athletes. The other thing that killed them was Steve Slaton’s poor performance and lack of heart in a big game. Slaton fumbled twice at the start of the second half, the second of which led to a Ville defensive score. Then he remained out of the game for several crucial series when his team needed him due to some sort of a hand injury. He later returned but it was too late at this point.

Why Rutgers will beat Louisville

The best part of Louisville’s win over WVU is that now the Big East has virtually no shot of getting into the National Title Game. Why you ask? Well because this Thursday in Piscataway, New Jersey the Cardinals dream season will come to a crashing end. I have spoken many times about how important emotion is in College Football. Louisville just played the biggest game in the history of their program and now they must go on the road to face a rested Rutgers team in exactly the same place. This game is the first meaningful football game in the state of New Jersey since the kick-off Classic ended a few years ago.
The Rutgers fans will be absolutely crazy and Rutgers will show the whole USA first hand how far they have come under Greg Schiano.

Let’s look at Louisville’s last 7 road games against major conference teams:

At Syracuse win 28-13 – Closer game than the score.
At Kansas St. win 24-6

Last season
At Uconn win 30-20
At Cincinnati win 46 -22
At WVU Loss 46-44
At South Florida loss 45-14
At Kentucky win 31-24 –UK fumbled inside the 5 yard line in the final moments.

My point is this is a much different squad away from Papa John’s field. We all know they score 50 something points a game at home…..again at home.


Thursday Night
Stolz came over to watch the Rutgers – Louisville game. He had taken Rutgers +7 in the LYA2. I let him read the first half of my blog before the game and he was with me. Pfeif on the other hand was confident that Louisville would win easily…..”By 20 points” he said. Of course he is picking at a 47% clip in the LYA so why should this worry me? I’ll tell you what worried me….The Ville’s first play from scrimmage looked exactly like they did last week against WVU. With sufficient time Brohm and the talented Louisville receivers will tear you apart. Luckily Greg Schiano is not like any other coach. He knows that Rutgers only chance is to pressure Brohm and keep him from getting into any kind of rhythm. Down 25 -7 Rutgers looks to be in serious trouble, but in 3 plays they make the score 25-14 going into halftime. I still believe in this Rutgers team. Their defense has not stopped Louisville but it certainly has provided more resistance then WVU did last week and I don’t see the Louisville Defense shutting down Rutgers.

Did you see Brian Brohm’s brother on the sidelines? He also happens to be his QB coach and every time Brohm comes off the field his brother is right there screaming at him. This doesn’t look like a pleasant relationship. If I remember correctly Brian Brohm is twice the QB his brother Jeff was…..

The second half is a completely different story than the first half. At one point Louisville has 4 straight 3 and outs. Rutgers is running the ball right at Louisville and their receivers finally step up and make some plays. Rutgers comes all the way back to tie the score at 25 and now Louisville faces a make or break drive. They get the ball with 7:30 left in the game and Brohm converts two key 3rd down passes against the attacking Rutgers D. With the game on the line Louisville doesn’t look like a team that wants to win this game. Rutgers stops the Ville on third down and now they will have their chance to win the game. Thanks to a huge 3rd and 6 screen pass to 5th year senior Matt Leonard the Scarlet Knights moves down the field controlling the line of scrimmage. It is unbelievable that Rutgers is about to be 9-0 and one of the top 10 teams in the country……but it is about to happen as Rutgers lines up for a very manageable field goal. The kicker Ito actually misses wide left but a Louisville defender is clearly offsides. Attempt #2 is right down the middle and now barring another kick-off return Rutgers is going to win the game. For some inexcusable reason they kick the ball deep to the same Ville player who earlier had a 100 return and who has been one tackle away all night. This is Rutgers night and nothing is going to ruin it.

Final score Rutgers 28 Louisville 25

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Week 9 October 28, 2006 Part 1

This week’s theme was close but not quite..... (Unfortunately this applied to my gambling as well)….the exceptions were in Corvallis, Oregon and Blacksburg, Virginia. Texas was down 21-0 to Texas Tech, Auburn and Florida were both pushed late into the 4th quarter, Tennessee trailed South Carolina for one drive late in the third quarter and even Michigan struggled with lowly Northwestern.

Let’s begin with the Thursday night game between Clemson and Virginia Tech. It was only 5 earlier that Clemson looked like they could beat anyone in the country. Their convincing win over GA Tech in front of College Game Day and the entire nation had Clemson and their fans riding a high that hadn’t been experienced in many years. This team was a legitimate top 10 squad who had manhandled GA Tech, the same Tech team that took ND to final minute and soundly beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Talk of a BCS game and who knows what else was widespread in the Clemson football nation. When I spoke to my Clemson buddy Doug…aka “Fresh” on Thursday afternoon he said he was so nervous he couldn’t even think about work. (Considering that he once walked in on his former boss breast feeding in her office I’m sure this wasn’t the first time he had trouble focusing at work) but nonetheless it forced me to take a second look at this game which at first glance seemed to be a mere speed bump on Clemson’s schedule. In college football you can never under estimate the importance of emotion. Clemson has been hearing how good they are for 5 days and now has to face the large expectations that come with winning. What made matters worse was that they had a short week to prepare for an underachieving but dangerous Hokie team, at night in Blacksburg. Could this have been a worse set-up for the Tigers? Apparently not. (Let’s not forget about one other key factor. Pine aka “Flytrap” called me Thursday before the game and told me he loved Clemson. He said he had doubled the game and would have tripled it if that was possible. His last words were “How can you not love Clemson?” Oh god they never had a chance…..Just in case you doubt the mojo of Pine, he made 6 bets Thursday night and lost all 6.) Clemson is probably the best team in the ACC but barring a miracle they will not be in Jacksonville on December 2nd. On the other hand GA Tech definitely should be in Jacksonville after beating the “U” on Saturday as long as they can avoid pulling a GA Tech circa 2003 (or any other year) and lose to Duke or UNC. They can only hope Pine stays away from betting on them.

Then there is USC, who Gil and I loaded up on at -10. Right before the game Gil says don’t you think something is wrong with that game? Shouldn’t the line be more than 10 points? Of course I ignored him and picked the game anyway. If you would have told me Booty would throw for over 400 yards and Steve Smith would have 258 receiving yards I would have said we were laughing all the way to the bank. However, every time we turned this game on something bad was happening to USC. (We actually stopped flipping to the game and when USC made their late comeback we refused to switch back to even watch the 2 point play believing we might somehow be affecting the outcome.) After 3 fumbles, an interception in the end zone, a punt return and a missed 2 point attempt in the final seconds USC had their first regular season loss in 3 years. What’s worse is we also took them in the 2nd half and the 2 point conversion could have saved us.

The door has now been opened for many teams. The winner of next week’s West Virginia at Louisville game may have the most to gain, but don’t rule out the possibility of an Ohio St. - Michigan rematch in Glendale, Arizona. Here is why I say this…..#1 I am not convinced the West Virginia - Louisville winner will just cruise to an undefeated season. Both of these teams still have to play Pitt and Rutgers, neither of which are a pushover….#2 If OSU and Michigan play a very close game on November 18th it seems very likely that the loser will not fall very far in the BCS. This is especially true if the loser is Ohio State. I can guarantee you if Michigan goes into Columbus and wins by a point or on a last second field goal there will be an excellent chance OSU will remain #2. (Remember Florida St. 1993) They have been such an overwhelming #1 all season that a narrow loss certainly wouldn’t drop them below Texas or a one loss SEC team. It also would not be unprecedented to see two teams play each other in back to back games with the 2nd being for the NC. Under slightly different circumstances it happened in 1996 when #2 FSU beat #1 Florida 24-21 in both teams regular season finale. That year Florida had one more chance to state their case in the SEC Championship and did so by beating Alabama. They also got some help, first from Texas, as they upset a one loss Nebraska team in the Big 12 Championship and then from the old non-BCS format that required an undefeated ASU team to play in the Rose Bowl, where they were beaten on a late Ohio St. touchdown. Just don’t think it can’t happen we have seen some crazy things happen under the current system why should we expect this year to be any different? The best part of an OSU – Michigan rematch would be their fans having to co-exist in Arizona for a few days. I’m sure that would be amusing.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Thrashers – I know they don’t play college football, but who has had a better week then the Thrashers? They are on a season long 5 game road trip (in 8 days) and so far they have 6 out of 8 possible points. (An OT and SO loss) Saturday night they went into Buffalo and knocked off the 10-0 Sabres, who were looking to set the NHL record with 11 straight wins to start a season. Onhand covering the game were representatives from Sports Illustrated and the Hockey News and pairs of tickets were selling for more than $430 bones. Yes, this all for a Thrashers game. After the 5-4 shoot-out win the Thrash find themselves with 19 points, which is good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference and only 2 points behind the mighty Sabres. This team is for real!

Coming tomorrow……a preview of week 10, including the much anticipated match-up between West Virginia and Louisville.