WEEK 4 and 5
Consider last week the Blog’s bye week… After a week off, I am refreshed and have plenty to write about. I actually started to write the blog last week and quickly realized I had nothing much to say (shocking, I know). It seemed as if the football season had hit a serious lull. Week 4 had some good games (Georgia at Alabama, Kentucky at Arkansas, PSU at Michigan) but really nothing that had tremendous national implications. Week 5 was supposed to be a good week, but initially it appeared to just be setting the stage for the biggest weekend of the season. Well that didn’t exactly happen. When we look back at the 2007 college football season we may very well look back at this past weekend as the one that had the biggest impact on who is playing who and where in the BCS games scheduled for next March (TV has requested this).
Coming into the weekend we had the following top 10:
USC, LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Cal, Texas, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Rutgers (most of the usual suspects)
We knew WVU and Cal would be pushed by South Florida and Oregon, we thought Florida, USC, Wisconsin and Rutgers were all playing teams that under the right circumstances could be involved in close games. It was a foregone conclusion that LSU, Oklahoma, Texas (revenge) and Ohio St. would at least survive one more week.
After last weekend new top 10 includes:
LSU, USC, Cal, Ohio St., Wisconsin, BC, South Florida, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma……and all I can say is WOW. If last week (4) was like watching Turtle wait in line for $500 sneakers, this week was the equivalent of E having a three-some with 2 drop dead gorgeous girls. Let’s just hope that we haven’t peaked like E. Between the upsets last week and the big games coming up this week, I don’t know how everyone doesn’t love college football (yes, even me).
What happened and what do we know now:
The Pac Ten is a good conference…Why? Cal is for real and Oregon is still scary. It took 4 Duck turnovers late in the game to lose for the first time in 20 years at home to Cal. ASU under Dennis Erickson is 5-0 and Washington is an improved team.
The ACC has only one team left with any real top 10 aspirations…BC and they barely beat UMASS. Clemson did exactly what they always do…choke.
The Big 12 blows…so much for the Red River Shootout next week…HOW does Oklahoma lose to a terrible Colorado team? It’s not the first time that Stoops has lost to an unranked team (See Oklahoma St., TCU, UCLA, Texas A&M) I know Missouri and Kansas are still both undefeated, but please have they played anyone?
The SEC top to bottom may be better than ever…You don’t think so, well this Thursday’s Kentucky at South Carolina game might be the best game of the upcoming week and that is saying a lot when you have Florida at LSU and Georgia at Tennessee. The winner in Columbia will have a legit shot at making their first trip to Atlanta.
South Florida is now the Big East favorite and Cincinnati may be for real. Do I really need to say anything else? Did you read any preseason magazines? (Ok, so maybe I am the only one that still reads preseason magazines anymore.) What internet site predicted this?
We have no idea how good any of the Big Ten teams are. OSU has played a soft schedule, Wisconsin looks like they are going to lose every week and somehow wins, Finally we see Michigan does not play its entire schedule at home and Purdue found a way to let Notre Dame out gain them in total yards on their way to a 5-0 start.
Three sucker bets this past weekend:
PSU -3 at Illinois. What happened? Illinois won straight up. Anthony Morelli still has never won a road game of any consequence. BTW this doesn’t mean I am writing off PSU, I just won’t go near them in a road game until they prove otherwise.
Louisville -9 at NC State. What happened? 3 weeks ago this line would have been 24 points or more. Louisville didn’t win that big but 29-10 was more than enough to cover the 9 points. Tom O’Brien, how does that move from BC to Raleigh look now? (Maybe he should be the next San Diego Chargers head coach.)
Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech….What happened? Anyone who follows Georgia Tech or Clemson has seen this one too many times before. Tech was left for dead after 2 straight losses and Clemson appeared to be ready to finally get past their reputation of losing games they shouldn’t. Tech 13 Clemson 3. (I won’t bet for or against Tech one time the rest of the season.)
“The stats are startling. They average less points per game than most teams do in a quarter”
“Our offense is doing anything it wants to”
“Our QB is getting extraordinary amounts of time to throw”
“The way this game is going I don’t know what is going to save the (opponent) today.”
Can you guess what satellite broadcast I was listening to on Saturday? If you guessed Purdue you were correct. Unfortunately I only heard the first half. On top of the previously mentioned comments Notre Dame missed 2 extra points (they actually missed a 3rd but a penalty gave them another kick) had a field goal blocked, allowed Purdue to convert on a 3rd and 29 and a 3rd and 21 and failed to gain a single yard on two 4th and 1 situations. And this was the first positive performance of the season for the Irish.
Week 5 (My predicted spreads on Sunday night vs. lines from the USA Today on Thursday)
Thursday
Kentucky at South Carolina (CB says SC -2)…It started lower and is now at 3.5 and even 5 points in some places. This will be a great game and Kentucky will live their dream for one more week. If Steve Spurrier had Andre Woodson he would be in Atlanta in December. Cats 24 SC 23
Saturday
Florida at LSU (CB says LSU -7.5). The line on Thursday is 8.5. While the Auburn loss exposed Florida’s weaknesses, it may be the best thing that could have happened to them. I think Florida will make this a great game and be in it until the 4th quarter. LSU 27 UF 21.
Ohio St. at Purdue (CB says OSU -8.5). OSU is favored by 7 as the road team. Purdue has players at the skill positions and playing at home at night you know West Lafeyette will be rocking. I just think Painter will make too many mistakes against an OSU team that has been in many games like this before. OSU 27 Purdue 16
Georgia at Tennessee (CB says pick ‘em). Georgia is ranked just outside of the top 10 and has beaten UT the last 3 times in Knoxville and UT is unranked with a defense giving up 37 points a game. Somehow UT is favored by 1.5 and you know what? I have a hunch that the odds-makers are right on this one. Vols 31 Dawgs 27.
Notre Dame at UCLA (CB says UCLA -11.5). Well obviously I was way off on this one. UCLA is favored by 20.5 and I won’t even begin to touch this game. Evan Sharpley actually gave the Irish some life last week and he should play more in this game. IF ND is going to avoid going 0-8, I think this is the game, but I just don’t have the courage to pick it that way. UCLA 23 ND 13. PS: You know its bad when the Chicago ABC affiliate chooses the OSU at Purdue over the ND at UCLA game. Rudy's Dad would be heartbroken.
Oklahoma at Texas (CB says OK -9). This one is up to -11 for Oklahoma. I really love Oklahoma in this game and was hoping the line would find its way to 7 points. Oklahoma big, I mean BIG. 42 -17.
Virginia Tech at Clemson (CB says Clem -3.5) Clemson will find out everything it needs to know in this game. Last year they dismantled Ga Tech and then took a beat down in Blacksburg 4 days later on the Thursday night ESPN game. I actually like Clemson to win…just not at 5.5. Clemson 20 Va Tech 17.
Cincinnati at Rutgers (CB says Rutgers -3). This line is at 3.5 and I am really struggling with it. On one hand I love the way Cincinnati is playing and I think they could be for real. (Last week they were an easy pick at San Diego St.) Cincy ruined Rutgers season last year 30-11 in a big upset and I love REVENGE...but I love recent history more. Cincy has covered 12 of 14 and I’ll take the points. Rutgers wins 31-29 but Cincy covers.
Wisconsin at Illinois (CB says Wisky -5.5). This one screams TAKE ME with Wisconsin +2.5. I loved Illinois last week against PSU but I don’t think I am on the band wagon this week. It just seems too obvious. Wisconsin 27 Illinois 17. Let’s not forget the Badgers are the 5th ranked team in the country.
Nebraska at Missouri (CB says Mizou -6) The line is Missouri -7 and I think Mizzou is the better team, especially being at home. They have beaten the Cornhuskers by the exact same score of 41-24 the last 2 games in Columbia. You know what…..Mizzou 41 Nebraska 24. With hockey season starting let’s make it a hat trick!
Georgia Tech at Maryland (CB says Tech -3 and stay away). That is exactly the line and it begs you to take Tech…much like the Virginia game did 2 weeks ago and Clemson – Tech game did last week. That makes it an easy decision. Take the Terps coming off the big win over Rutgers. Terps 23 Tech 21
Random pick of the week: I love one home favorite, who is coming off back to back road losses, more than any other game this season. This is my 5 star lock. Check back after 5pm for more details.
Enjoy a great weekend of college football and check back next week as I head to Knoxville with PINE and a video camera…..can you say YOU TUBE??
