Week 9 October 28, 2006 Part 1

This week’s theme was close but not quite..... (Unfortunately this applied to my gambling as well)….the exceptions were in Corvallis, Oregon and Blacksburg, Virginia. Texas was down 21-0 to Texas Tech, Auburn and Florida were both pushed late into the 4th quarter, Tennessee trailed South Carolina for one drive late in the third quarter and even Michigan struggled with lowly Northwestern.

Let’s begin with the Thursday night game between Clemson and Virginia Tech. It was only 5 earlier that Clemson looked like they could beat anyone in the country. Their convincing win over GA Tech in front of College Game Day and the entire nation had Clemson and their fans riding a high that hadn’t been experienced in many years. This team was a legitimate top 10 squad who had manhandled GA Tech, the same Tech team that took ND to final minute and soundly beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Talk of a BCS game and who knows what else was widespread in the Clemson football nation. When I spoke to my Clemson buddy Doug…aka “Fresh” on Thursday afternoon he said he was so nervous he couldn’t even think about work. (Considering that he once walked in on his former boss breast feeding in her office I’m sure this wasn’t the first time he had trouble focusing at work) but nonetheless it forced me to take a second look at this game which at first glance seemed to be a mere speed bump on Clemson’s schedule. In college football you can never under estimate the importance of emotion. Clemson has been hearing how good they are for 5 days and now has to face the large expectations that come with winning. What made matters worse was that they had a short week to prepare for an underachieving but dangerous Hokie team, at night in Blacksburg. Could this have been a worse set-up for the Tigers? Apparently not. (Let’s not forget about one other key factor. Pine aka “Flytrap” called me Thursday before the game and told me he loved Clemson. He said he had doubled the game and would have tripled it if that was possible. His last words were “How can you not love Clemson?” Oh god they never had a chance…..Just in case you doubt the mojo of Pine, he made 6 bets Thursday night and lost all 6.) Clemson is probably the best team in the ACC but barring a miracle they will not be in Jacksonville on December 2nd. On the other hand GA Tech definitely should be in Jacksonville after beating the “U” on Saturday as long as they can avoid pulling a GA Tech circa 2003 (or any other year) and lose to Duke or UNC. They can only hope Pine stays away from betting on them.

Then there is USC, who Gil and I loaded up on at -10. Right before the game Gil says don’t you think something is wrong with that game? Shouldn’t the line be more than 10 points? Of course I ignored him and picked the game anyway. If you would have told me Booty would throw for over 400 yards and Steve Smith would have 258 receiving yards I would have said we were laughing all the way to the bank. However, every time we turned this game on something bad was happening to USC. (We actually stopped flipping to the game and when USC made their late comeback we refused to switch back to even watch the 2 point play believing we might somehow be affecting the outcome.) After 3 fumbles, an interception in the end zone, a punt return and a missed 2 point attempt in the final seconds USC had their first regular season loss in 3 years. What’s worse is we also took them in the 2nd half and the 2 point conversion could have saved us.

The door has now been opened for many teams. The winner of next week’s West Virginia at Louisville game may have the most to gain, but don’t rule out the possibility of an Ohio St. - Michigan rematch in Glendale, Arizona. Here is why I say this…..#1 I am not convinced the West Virginia - Louisville winner will just cruise to an undefeated season. Both of these teams still have to play Pitt and Rutgers, neither of which are a pushover….#2 If OSU and Michigan play a very close game on November 18th it seems very likely that the loser will not fall very far in the BCS. This is especially true if the loser is Ohio State. I can guarantee you if Michigan goes into Columbus and wins by a point or on a last second field goal there will be an excellent chance OSU will remain #2. (Remember Florida St. 1993) They have been such an overwhelming #1 all season that a narrow loss certainly wouldn’t drop them below Texas or a one loss SEC team. It also would not be unprecedented to see two teams play each other in back to back games with the 2nd being for the NC. Under slightly different circumstances it happened in 1996 when #2 FSU beat #1 Florida 24-21 in both teams regular season finale. That year Florida had one more chance to state their case in the SEC Championship and did so by beating Alabama. They also got some help, first from Texas, as they upset a one loss Nebraska team in the Big 12 Championship and then from the old non-BCS format that required an undefeated ASU team to play in the Rose Bowl, where they were beaten on a late Ohio St. touchdown. Just don’t think it can’t happen we have seen some crazy things happen under the current system why should we expect this year to be any different? The best part of an OSU – Michigan rematch would be their fans having to co-exist in Arizona for a few days. I’m sure that would be amusing.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Thrashers – I know they don’t play college football, but who has had a better week then the Thrashers? They are on a season long 5 game road trip (in 8 days) and so far they have 6 out of 8 possible points. (An OT and SO loss) Saturday night they went into Buffalo and knocked off the 10-0 Sabres, who were looking to set the NHL record with 11 straight wins to start a season. Onhand covering the game were representatives from Sports Illustrated and the Hockey News and pairs of tickets were selling for more than $430 bones. Yes, this all for a Thrashers game. After the 5-4 shoot-out win the Thrash find themselves with 19 points, which is good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference and only 2 points behind the mighty Sabres. This team is for real!

Coming tomorrow……a preview of week 10, including the much anticipated match-up between West Virginia and Louisville.