Monday August 27, 2007

There are exactly 3 days left before the very first college football games of the season on Thursday August 30th (I also leave for the ND – Georgia Tech game on this day) and 5 days until our very first Saturday of College Football…….THANK GOD!

I started this blog last year as I sat at home on the Sunday night of the very first College Football weekend with so many thoughts, observations and predictions but no one to discuss them with. Don’t get me wrong my wife Kimberly loves college football about as much as any girl I have ever met, but I can only talk about the 3 way race for the starting QB job at Notre Dame so many times before she loses interest. (I just interrupted her reading a book to see if she could name the 3 QB’s…..she immediately rattled off Jimmy Clausen, Evan Sharpley and the black kid…..(Demetrius Jones) she also knew exactly how many years of eligibility they each have remaining. She has been listening…..but you get my point, she can only take so much. So here I am back for year two with a full preview of what to watch for as we get ready for another great college and unpredictable football season…..

The preseason top 10 rankings are filled with the usual suspects: USC, LSU, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin. What an original group! Some of these teams are loaded with returning players while others would be in the preseason top ten if they had Larry Jones penciled in at QB. Rather than break down each of these teams and tell you how great they are I am going to tell you why each of them could slip out of the top 10 or maybe even the top 25. Now granted USC is not likely to be 8-4 or 7-5 but I think you will be surprised at the way things worked out last year. I took a look at last season’s preseason and end of the season rankings: All of the following teams were unranked in the preseason polls: Rutgers #12, (final USA Today ranking) Wisconsin #5, Boise St. #6, Arkansas #16, BYU #15, Wake Forest #17 and Boston College #20. That is 7 of the final top 20 and two teams in the top 6. So much for preseason polls!

Here is why each of these teams could struggle this coming season:

USC – There is no Dwayne Jarrett or Steve Smith to make John David Booty look good. (Carson Palmer or Matt Leinhart he is not) They lost offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and have no proven running back after losing their leading rusher to Florida (transfer) They have a very tough road schedule: At Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, Cal and ASU. Not to mention they are breaking in a new kicker….will this eventually hurt them? (They haven’t kicked very many meaningful field goals over the last 5 years.) UCLA finally beat them and seem to be a team on the rise….if nothing else they are no longer a pushover. Lastly, we have seen one transfer, can Pete Carroll keep all of these 5 star recruits happy?

LSU– Loaded with talent but must replace their star QB and starting receivers. Yes Matt Flynn has played before but how will he do against SEC defenses week in and week out? Virginia Tech and their excellent defense will be the first test. Do you really trust Les Miles in a close game? (See Florida and Auburn last year) The wild card in the SEC this season is Alabama. Do you really think Nick Saban will just roll over when they host the Tigers in November? Lastly it just seems too easy to ride the LSU bandwagon with the BCS Championship game being in New Orleans. I think it is the Saints year not the Bayou Bengals.

Florida – So few teams can follow one Championship team with another. They have a new QB, Tim Tebow, who is under tremendous pressure. Eight starters on defense are long gone, including Reggie Nelson and Jarvis Moss. They must travel to LSU in October and play road games at both Kentucky and South Carolina who both appear to be much improved in the scary SEC East. I didn’t even mention games against Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia and FSU. Florida will be good….just not that good. Chris Leak may be missed more than most Florida people care to admit.

Texas – This team was ranked in the top 5 in both polls last season and managed to lose 3 games. We have seen so many star players head to the NFL in the last 2 seasons will it finally catch up to the Longhorns? Do you really believe in Colt McCoy? Can he and his newly rebuilt body stay healthy over a 14 game schedule? How many more times can they run the story of him saving a life on the lake last summer? I wonder what he did for an encore this offseason? I can’t wait for this Game Day story. Lastly will they be able to stay interested during the boring Big 12 schedule? If it wasn’t for first half bets I know I wouldn’t be interested.

Oklahoma – There is no Adrian Peterson and no QB as of yet. How is it that a school like Oklahoma is without a clear cut #1 QB for two straight seasons? Is it me or didn’t you think Bob Stoops would have 3 National Titles by now? Is it possible that he isn’t as great a coach as we thought?

Michigan - This is an easy one….the more you expect from Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines the less you usually get. We forget they were 7 point dogs heading into South Bend last season. That game seemed to be the turning point until they were beaten soundly by OSU and USC again to finish 11-2. YES they have all of their offensive stars back, but does Michigan ever win with lots of offense? The answer is no, and the defense must replace too many key players to expect the same kind of season as they had last year. Carr will retire if he loses to OSU again. I wonder who would win if he coached against John Cooper now?

West Virginia- Pat White and Steve Slaton are sure to run all over the Big East and the rest of their foes but can the defense stop anyone? I guess it must be tough when you only come off the field for 2-3 plays like their defense often does. Brian Brohm carved WVU up last season and why should we expect anything different this time around? This is a two man team and if something happens to either player WVU could easily lose 3-4 games. Road games at Maryland, South Florida and Rutgers will not be gimmies.

Virginia Tech – They play at LSU in week 2 and have a very mediocre QB in Sean Glennon. (He is a nice guy and loves dogs though) Georgia Tech came into Blacksburg and won last year and someone else will do the same thing this season. They will certainly be a sentimental choice this season after the tragedy that took place last spring, but emotion can only help your starting QB so much.

Wisconsin – Totally under the radar last season and way over rated this year. Pollsters do this way too much. They lost massive Tackle Joe Thomas and gain Ohio State on the Big Ten schedule. This team won’t sneak up on anyone and must replace steady QB John Stocco.

Top 25 Conference Breakdown
SEC – 6 teams
BIG TEN – 4 teams
ACC – 2 teams
BIG EAST – 3 teams
PAC TEN – 3 teams
BIG 12 – 4 teams
CONFERENCE USA – 1 team
WAC – 2 teams


SCHEDULING

Scheduling is clearly the biggest challenge in today’s CFB world and there is nothing I love more than digging into every teams out of conference schedule to see what cool games are happening each year. Sometimes I even start looking at schedules for future seasons… yes I know I have a problem. Unlike the NFL where teams may go 3 or 4 years without playing each other sometimes traditional teams go 20, 30, 40 years without playing each other. The key now is you must schedule enough quality opponents to get credit for big wins, but not so many good teams that you can’t make it through the season with 1 loss or less. Big games can propel you through the season or can kill your hopes before Labor Day…..so let’s take a look at each BCS conference and see what teams are doing this season.

SEC

There is no question the SEC is again the deepest conference in America. The East is loaded with the usual suspects Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. However, South Carolina or Kentucky could easily sneak into the top 25 with an early season upset. Arkansas plays in the weaker West Division but plays a pathetic out of conference schedule (Troy, N. Texas, UT Chattanooga and Fla International) isn’t it a good thing we added a 12th game so Arkansas could play Fla Int’l or UTC…..COME ON! How about playing at least one team from a BCS conference. These games will come back to haunt Arkansas and McFadden if they don’t pull an upset or two against the likes of Auburn or LSU. McFadden can’t win a Heisman Trophy playing in games no one cares about or will ever see highlights from. He already plays in Arkansas…..enough said.

In all seriousness why in the world did the NCAA add a 12th game to schedule? Very few teams have actually used this game to play a decent opponent, UGA being one of those teams. They host Oklahoma St. in week one and then play traditional rival Georgia Tech in the season finale. Tennessee goes on the road to Cal and plays Southern Miss….2 very respectable games. The best non-conference game by an SEC team is LSU hosting Virginia Tech. (Seriously this must have been a mistake by Virginia Tech, they never play anyone but cupcakes out of conference?) This game may be as close as we get in September to replacing the Ohio St. vs. Texas games the last 2 years

ACC

Anyone who knows me knows how I feel about ACC football. I can’t even contain myself thinking about the first Lincoln Financial Game of the Week…..Wake at Virginia in week 2 and you think I’m kidding. However, I am surprised that only two ACC teams are ranked and one of them is FSU. Apparently no one remembers FSU lost at home in November to Wake Forest 30-0….yes 30-0 at home. With Miami and FSU being in down cycles this league is really desperate to have another program step up and consistently establish itself. Seriously if you switched the jerseys in the locker rooms could you really tell NC State and BC apart…..heck they almost share the same coach. What about Maryland, or Clemson? Same for Georgia Tech or Virginia. If you play in the ACC you must play at least 2 decent out of conference games, maybe 3 if you play DUKE every year. The SEC can make some excuses because the conference is so tough but that doesn’t fly in the ACC. Now as much as I hate FSU, I give them credit for playing UAB, at Colorado, Alabama in Jacksonville and of course Florida. Maybe I am way off here but I see them losing at least 4 games and if they lose at Clemson on Monday September 3rd it will be even worse. (Unbelievably they are 3.5 favorites on the road in this game….can you say lock?) I have heard more about Jimbo Covert since FSU hired him as their offensive coordinator, you would think he is playing QB. (This is part of what I call 6 degrees of LSU’s pounding of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl last January. #1 JeMarcus Russell throws for 900 yards against Rudy like defensive backs and vaults to the number one pick in the NFL draft. #2 Brady Quinn is suddenly terrible and spends a week in the green room until pick # 22. #3 Jimbo Covert is an offensive genius. #4 LSU will win the 2007-2008 national title. #5 Notre Dame will start 1-6. #6 I hate Mark May – sorry I had to throw that one in there.) No doubt Jimbo is an upgrade from Jeff Bowden, but Pops calling plays would be an upgrade from Jeff Bowden. You don’t lose 30-0 against Wake because you have a bad offensive coordinator, you lose like that because your talent level is down and your team lacks heart and discipline. Speaking of Wake, the defending ACC Champs (that just sounds weird) play what must be the biggest non conference game in their history when they host Nebraska. Clemson really makes the crappy drive to Death Valley worth while during 3 weekends by playing LA Monroe, Furman and Central Michigan, before ending with traditional rival South Carolina. UNC begins the Butch Davis era by hosting South Carolina in an interesting match-up. Within 2-3 years Chapel Hill might actually be a tough place to play as Davis has done a great job recruiting already. BC and Georgia Tech, who both expect to be in contention in the ACC make the pilgrimage to South Bend and host Army. (That’s a lot of gold helmets.)


BIG TEN

The Buckeyes bad loss in the NC game really hurt the Big Ten’s reputation. Last year I compared teams from the Big Ten and the SEC during the season and outside of OSU and Michigan the Big Ten was a big underdog. (Wisconsin did beat Arkansas in the bowl game last year, for whatever that is worth.) I am not going to lie I actually enjoy watching Big Ten football, at least when Bob Davie is not announcing them. I know they don’t always have the best athletes and they sometimes run gimcky offenses, but there is just something about cold weather football that I love.

In looking at the Big Ten out of conference games you don’t see much out of the ordinary. Michigan begins a home and home series with Oregon and plays Notre Dame and 1AA Champion Appalachian. St. hmmm that should be interesting…. Ohio St. drops Texas and gains a game at Washington. I recently read somewhere that OSU’s first 4 games spell out the word yawn. (Youngstown, Akron, Washington, Northwestern) Strangely enough the Big Ten is involved in 3 of the top 4 games that have the toughest ticket this season. According to Ticket broker Ticketcity.com Notre Dame at PSU is the toughest ticket at $1100 a ducat, Michigan vs. OSU is second at $1000 and ND at Michigan is 4th at $696. While those games should be great to watch the game I am most interested in seeing is the “TRANSFORMER GAME IN THE DESERT”. This of course is the rematch between Wisconsin at UNLV. If you remember correctly these 2 teams played each other in 2002 and the game had a very interesting ending. http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2002/Sep-05-Thu-2002/sports/19565995.html

The game was called with 7:41 remaining due to a mysterious power outage with Wisconsin comfortably in front. In Vegas this means the game is off the board (55 minutes must be played) and money bet on either team would be returned to the person that placed the wager. (With PINE in Vegas now anything is now possible) It is no small coincidence that thousands of Badger fans had made the trip to Vegas and bet a lot of money on their beloved Badgers. You better believe I will be watching the line on this one, if I remember correctly I was all over this game in the LYA last time around. Luckily we don’t have the 55 minute rule.

BIG 12

Texas and Ohio St. dominated the early season title discussions the last two years as they matched up in prime time in week two. The road team prevailed in each game and shot straight to the BCS title game. Texas has replaced OSU with TCU and this year there isn’t really one great early season inter-conference game that everyone will be talking about. (Maybe Va Tech at LSU) USC at Nebraska could be a very interesting early game but until Nebraska actually wins a game like this they will remain a heavy underdog even in Lincoln. Miami plays two Big 12 games at Oklahoma and home versus Texas A&M. The Oklahoma game is sure to stir up some memories from the late 80’s match-ups between Vinny Testaverde and Brian Bosworth. (Barry Switzer lost 29 games in over 15 years and 3 of those were to Miami in 85, 86 and 87.)

PAC 10

The Pac 10 is the only major BCS conference to play 9 league games. This gives each team only 3 other opportunities to play games around the country. Washington goes into the season with nation’s toughest schedule. (According to those so-called experts) They play at Syracuse, home against Boise St. and then host Ohio St. They also scheduled a 13th game at Hawaii to end the season. USC plays at Nebraska and ND and Arizona St. plays at Colorado. I know ASU and Colorado won’t be prime time game but I had to mention the fact that Dennis Erickson is coaching at ASU. Somehow this had completely escaped me until reading the Pac Ten preview. It will be interesting to see if Erickson can change the pretty boy image at ASU and bring in some thugs like he has done at Oregon St. and Miami. Some guys just never go away. I already mentioned Cal playing Tennessee and lastly UCLA plays an impressive out of conference schedule: BYU, Utah and Notre Dame.

BIG EAST

I saved the Big East for last for a reason….only about 5 games in the Big East matter. This league plays 7 conference games because they have so few teams. (There are 24 Big East basketball teams but only 8 football teams.) Sadly very few out of conference games stick out for the right reasons. Pitt vs. Grambling and Rutgers vs. Norfolk St. should be good ones! WVU and Rutgers both play Maryland. Louisville plays at Kentucky and at NC State and hosts Utah and that’s about it. NOW the Big East does have one thing going for it this year…..they are trying to play all of their games before Saturday each week. Seriously, between Rutgers, WVU and Louisville they play 14 total games on Thursdays and Fridays

There you go, that is my preseason breakdown of what to look for in the upcoming season. I have no idea what this season will bring me personally as my favorite team, Notre Dame, could be in for a long season and my main subject during most of the blogs last year is now 3 time zones away. Football season certainly won’t be the same without PINE drinking himself into a frenzy in Knoxville or calling me about preseason NFL games, halftime bets and what time his picks are due. I often wonder how he will do with games taking place at 9 and 10am in the morning and casino sports books being so close to his basement. In his honor (and because he cheats) I am not going to make any picks in week one until Thursday/Friday when the LYA starts however I will mention a few interesting games. Both involve home dogs……Clemson over FSU and Syracuse over Washington. Good luck!